Olivia Chow's Chances Hit 76% Despite Bradford Gaining in Polls

Olivia Chow's chance of winning the Oct. 26, 2026 Toronto mayoral election is 76% on Polymarket's "Who will win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?" market as of Oct. 18, up from 68% three days earlier. The freshest poll is tighter: Pallas Data has Chow at 52% and Councillor Brad Bradford at 46%, with Bradford up 7 points since August.

Live market odds

2 venues

Who will win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?

Each outcome's chance, from what traders are paying right now on Kalshi and Polymarket.

Olivia ChowIn this story

53%

KalshiBest price1.89x53¢Polymarket1.89x53¢

Brad Bradford

49%

PolymarketBest price2.04x49¢Kalshi2.00x50¢

New to Kalshi? Get a $35 trading bonus

Code PRED35. New users only. Eligibility restrictions and terms apply.

Claim offer

Compare every venueCents per $1 payout, before fees

The two numbers measure different things. The 76% is a trader-implied probability that Chow wins. It is not a vote share or a forecast model. The 52-46 figure is a poll of voter support. The market and the poll's trend now point in opposite directions.

---

Are There Polls for the Toronto Mayoral Race Between Chow and Bradford?

Yes. Three recent public polls all show Chow ahead by 4 to 6 points:

| Pollster | Fieldwork / Release | Chow | Bradford | |---|---|---|---| | Pallas Data | Conducted Oct. 14, published Oct. 16 | 52% | 46% | | Nanos | Oct. 8-10 | 51% | 47% | | Liaison Strategies | Released around Oct. 13-15 | 51% | 46% |

Pallas Data is the only poll of the three that measures a trend. Bradford gained 7 points since August, and undecideds fell to 12%, according to Pallas Data. Third-place candidate Chris Alexander dropped out on Oct. 6, which consolidated the field into a two-way contest. The Nanos poll found bike lanes to be a dividing line: 74% of Chow supporters favour expansion.

1D7D30D

The three-day window includes the Oct. 16 release of the Pallas Data poll.

Chow's price rose roughly 8 percentage points while the polling gap narrowed. One reading is that traders are weighting the consistency of her lead over the direction of the trend. This is our interpretation, not a sourced explanation. Every poll has her ahead, and none shows Bradford in front.

A 52% poll share and a 76% win price are not in conflict on their face. A steady 6-point lead in a two-candidate race can support a win probability well above 52%, so the market is not mirroring the poll number. Advance voting also drew more than 222,000 voters from Oct. 6 to 11, and those ballots are already cast.

---

What Could Challenge Chow's 76% Price

Bradford's 7-point gain since August is the one sourced trend that cuts against the market's direction. Pallas Data alone shows the narrowing, so it cannot establish a continuing slide. It does show momentum the market may not have priced in.

The campaigns are trading blows on public safety and city finances. Bradford detailed a $143M police hiring plan, and Chow responded that he "probably doesn't read the budget," per CTV News. Both candidates spent the weekend focused on safety, CityNews reported. Chow also picked up endorsements from Sarah Polley and Feist as the race entered its final full week, according to CBC News.

The final televised debate, hosted by CTV/CP24, is scheduled for Oct. 22 at 7 p.m., four days before the vote. It is the last major scheduled event, and CBC's voting guide covers the remaining voting logistics.

We could not establish what drove the 8-point move. No withdrawal, scandal or ruling surfaced in the 72 hours before Oct. 18.

The Toronto mayoral election market settles on the official winner of the Oct. 26 election. Polls and prices before then do not affect settlement.