Nottingham Forest's relegation odds halve to 14% after Man City win

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Will Nottingham Forest be relegated? Market odds halve to 14% after beating Man City

Nottingham Forest's chance of relegation fell from 28% to 14% in Kalshi's EPL Relegation market over the three days to 8 November, after a 3-1 win over Manchester City at the City Ground on 7 November 2026 lifted them out of the bottom three. It was their first home league win of the season. Jair Cunha scored in the sixth minute and Liam Delap added goals in the 18th and 73rd minutes, with Rayan Cherki replying for City, according to BBC Sport.

Live market odds

2 venues

EPL Relegation

Each outcome's chance, from what traders are paying right now on Kalshi and Polymarket US.

Nottingham ForestIn this story

7%

Polymarket USBest price25.00x4¢Kalshi7.69x13¢

Coventry City

56%

Kalshi1.75x57¢

Hull City

55%

Polymarket USBest price1.82x55¢Kalshi1.79x56¢

Crystal Palace

41%

Polymarket USBest price2.63x38¢Kalshi2.22x45¢

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The win lifted Forest to 16th with 9 points from 10 games (two wins, three draws, five losses). It also pushed Manchester United into the bottom three, the first time United have sat there at this stage of a season in 40 years, ESPN reported. Forest had gone five league games without a win, including a 2-0 defeat at Brentford on 31 October, after which head coach Oliver Glasner warned of changes. Delap, a £50m signing from Chelsea, had scored only once before Saturday.

City sank to a third straight league defeat, per ESPN. Maresca said his side "didn't match [Forest's] intensity or win duels or second balls."

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How the Nottingham Forest relegation price moved from 28% to 14%

The contract stood at 14% on 8 November, down from 28% three days earlier. The move followed the result and the table change reported by the sources.

Forest's cushion is thin. Coventry City sit 17th on the same 9 points, and United dropped to 18th before facing Aston Villa on 8 November, according to TNT Sports. Crystal Palace (19th, 7 points) and Sunderland (20th, 5 points) complete the bottom three. Pre-match, Opta's model gave Forest roughly a 33% chance of relegation, which is a model projection and not a market price.

The question for the 14% price is whether Forest stay above the bottom three after the international break. Forest rank among the league's top sides for expected goals but had scored only six goals before Saturday. A run of results that converts that chance creation would support the lower price. A return to the October form, which brought defeats to Crystal Palace and Arsenal, would push it back up. Live pricing for every club sits on the EPL relegation odds page.