Oklahoma State's Big 12 Title Odds Fall to 4% After Loss at Houston

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Oklahoma State's Big 12 Championship Odds Fall From 10% to 4% After Loss at Houston

Oklahoma State's chances of winning the Big 12 championship fell from 10% to 4% in the College Football Big 12 Championship Winner market after a 35-32 loss at No. 20 Houston on Oct. 17. The result left the Cowboys 2-1 in conference play, one game behind unbeaten BYU, Texas Tech and Utah. The title game is set for Dec. 4 in Arlington.

The Cowboys trailed 14-3 at halftime and never led, and Conner Weigman threw five touchdown passes in the Houston win, CBS Sports reported. The loss dropped Oklahoma State to 4-2 overall in Eric Morris's first season.

In the three days after the game, the Cowboys' implied probability fell from 10% to 4%, a drop of 6 percentage points. Kalshi and Polymarket both priced Oklahoma State at 4% on Oct. 21, the period low. We could not find a report directly tying the drop to the game, but the loss is the development that most closely matches the timing.

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The defeat wasted a productive night from the offense. Drew Mestemaker threw for 365 yards and three touchdowns, Caleb Hawkins had 125 receiving yards and Sam Keltner went 13-for-13 on field goals this season, according to the Oklahoma State postgame notes. It was the Cowboys' second loss, after a 24-10 defeat at Tulsa. It came one week after a 42-28 win over UCF.

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What Oklahoma State Needs Now: A Game Behind BYU, Texas Tech and Utah

Oklahoma State can still reach the title game, but it no longer controls a clear path. BYU, Texas Tech and Utah are each 3-0 in conference play, which puts the Cowboys one game back of all three in the loss column, per AP Big 12 coverage. At 4%, the market is pricing the standings this way: Oklahoma State likely needs to win out and see more than one of those unbeaten teams lose.

The résumé gives some reason for a rebound. The Cowboys beat No. 6 Oregon 39-31 on Sept. 12 and won 41-24 at West Virginia. The sources do not list Oklahoma State's next Big 12 opponent or the remaining schedules of the three leaders. The price could shift again as those results arrive, especially if any of BYU, Texas Tech or Utah takes its first conference loss.

Readers can compare the Oct. 21 figure with live pricing on the College Football Big 12 Championship Winner market.

Live market odds

2 venues

College Football Big 12 Championship Winner

Each outcome's chance, from what traders are paying right now on Kalshi and Polymarket.

Oklahoma State CowboysIn this story

4%

KalshiBest price20.00x5¢Polymarket13.33x7.5¢

Texas Tech Red Raiders

28%

PolymarketBest price3.57x28¢Kalshi3.23x31¢

Baylor Bears

3%

Polymarket16.39x6.1¢

BYU Cougars

26%

KalshiBest price3.85x26¢Polymarket3.70x27¢

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The Big 12 Championship Game kicks off Friday, Dec. 4, at 7 p.m. CT at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, on ABC. The winner earns the conference's automatic College Football Playoff bid.