Shomari Figures Polls: Marques Leads 48% to 46% in AL-02

The latest Shomari Figures poll located in this check, from Republican-aligned Remington Research Group (642 likely voters, fieldwork Oct. 23-25, 2026), has Republican Rhett Marques at 48% and Democrat Figures at 46% in Alabama's 2nd District, according to 1819 News. That is a 2-point race in a redrawn district Trump carried by about 14 points in 2024. Sabato's Crystal Ball then moved AL-02 to Toss-up, per al.com and Alabama Reporter.

Public polling located as of 2026-10-31. Two leading candidates in the newest row; other candidates omitted. Compare like-for-like respondent bases; pollster methods may differ.

Pollster / source	Fieldwork dates	Sample base	Rhett Marques	Shomari Figures	Undecided
Remington Research Group	2026-10-23 to 2026-10-25	likely voters	48%	46%	Not reported
Tulchin Research	2026-08-24 to 2026-08-31	likely voters	47%	47%	Not reported
DCCC	2026-07-29 to 2026-07-30	likely general election voters	46%	46%	8%
Impact Research	2026-06-22 to 2026-06-25	likely voters	45%	44%	Not reported

The poll, the rating change and the market all point the same way. In the market on how many House seats Democrats will win in Alabama, the 2-seat outcome rose from 32% to 38% over three days.

These are the polls located in this check, not every AL-02 survey. Each figure is a vote-intention snapshot from its fieldwork dates, not a forecast of vote share or of who wins.

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Are There Polls for the Alabama Democratic House Seats Market?

Yes, for AL-02. No statewide poll asks how many seats Democrats will win, so district polling of Figures vs. Marques is the relevant evidence. The Remington survey is the most recent located, and it shows a race within a couple of points.

The market measures something different. Its 38% on Oct. 31 is an implied probability that Democrats finish with exactly two Alabama seats, not a share of the vote. A 2-point Marques lead in a close race is consistent with a market that treats a Figures hold as plausible but not the favorite. Kalshi priced the outcome at 38% and Polymarket at 37%, a narrow spread.

Sabato's Toss-up label is a third type of evidence: a forecaster's judgment, not a poll and not a price. The move came after Cook Political Report shifted AL-02 from Likely Republican to Lean Republican around Oct. 23, so the two forecasters still differ on the race.

Resolved Nov 4, 2026

How many House seats will Democrats win in Alabama?

This market settled on November 4, 2026, so nothing below is tradeable. These are the last prices each venue published before settlement, not live quotes.

Compare every venueClosing prices, not an entry point

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How the 2-Seat Outcome Moved From 32% to 38%

The 2-seat outcome climbed 6 points over three days, from a window low of 32% to 38% on Oct. 31. The Remington poll's release and Sabato's Oct. 27-29 rating change fell within the same stretch.

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Why the 2-Seat Outcome Depends on AL-02 Rather Than AL-07

Democrats hold two Alabama seats today: Figures in AL-02 and Terri Sewell in AL-07. Reporting from al.com and others treats Sewell's seat as the secure Democratic district, while the rating shifts all concern AL-02. That makes the 2-seat outcome, as a matter of market arithmetic, largely a question of whether Figures holds his seat.

The district was redrawn after the Supreme Court's Louisiana v. Callais ruling, eliminating one of Alabama's two majority-Black districts. Figures won his old district by 9.2 points in 2024.

Two seats is one outcome among several in the Alabama Democratic House seats market, which resolves on the Nov. 3, 2026 results. The remaining 62% covers every other seat total combined, not one named alternative.