Victoria election polls: Coalition leads Labor 57–43, market at 96%

---

Will the Liberal–National Coalition Win the Victorian Election? Market Prices It at 96%

The Liberal–National Coalition leads Labor in Victorian election polls, and the Victoria Parliamentary Election Winner market prices a Coalition win at 96%. The RedBridge/Accent poll for the AFR has the Coalition ahead 57–43 on two-party preferred. The DemosAU poll for the Herald Sun has it ahead 56–44, with Labor's primary vote at 18%. Voters go to the polls on 28 November 2026. Premier Ben Carroll leads Labor and Opposition Leader Jess Wilson leads the Coalition.

On Kalshi, the Liberal–National outcome rose from 88% to 96% over the three days to Nov. 12, a gain of about 8 percentage points. That 96% is a market-implied probability of the Coalition forming government. It is not a poll result and it does not forecast vote share.

Live market odds

2 venues

Victoria Parliamentary Election Winner

Each outcome's chance, from what traders are paying right now on Kalshi and Polymarket.

Liberal–NationalIn this story

95%

KalshiBest price1.05x95¢Polymarket1.03x97.2¢

One Nation

4%

PolymarketBest price31.25x3.2¢Kalshi16.67x6¢

Labor

2%

Polymarket40.00x2.5¢

Greens: under 1% eachShow all

New to Kalshi? Get a $55 trading bonus

Code PRED55. New users only. Eligibility restrictions and terms apply.

Claim offer

Compare every venueCents per $1 payout, before fees

---

Are There Polls for Liberal–National vs Labor in Victoria?

Yes, and the newest ones are bad for Labor. RedBridge's fieldwork ran Nov. 3–10 with 1,008 respondents. It put primary votes at Coalition 31, Labor 23, One Nation 22 and Greens 15, according to The Poll Bludger. The same poll found Carroll's unfavourable rating up 10 points to 47%. DemosAU, in the field Oct. 30 to Nov. 5, had Labor's primary at 18%, down 7, against the Coalition's 33 and One Nation's 21.

Poll	Fieldwork	Sample	Coalition primary	Labor primary	One Nation primary	Two-party preferred (Coalition–Labor)
RedBridge/Accent (AFR)	Nov. 3–10	1,008	31	23	22	57–43
DemosAU (Herald Sun)	Oct. 30–Nov. 5	Not stated	33	18	21	56–44

The two kinds of figure measure different things. A 57–43 two-party preferred result estimates how the vote splits after preferences. The 96% price is the market's implied chance that the Coalition wins government. A lead of that size in vote share can support a much higher win probability, so the numbers cannot be compared directly. Both polls are snapshots taken more than two weeks before polling day, not results.

1D7D30D

The campaign has also changed how preferences will flow. On Nov. 10, Wilson confirmed the Coalition will preference One Nation ahead of Labor on how-to-vote cards, with exceptions in some seats. Labor called the decision "dangerous," ABC Radio Melbourne reported. With One Nation polling above 20% on primaries, those preferences matter to the two-party count.

---

What the Big Build Royal Commission Adds, and What the 96% Price Doesn't Settle

The Big Build royal commission gave Labor more damaging headlines in the same week. A CFMEU organiser testified that a union boss boasted of a "direct line to Jacinta Allan's office," and counsel assisting Chris Young, KC, criticised the Victorian Infrastructure Delivery Authority over redactions. Young also said texts linking Matthew Toner, an adviser to former premier Daniel Andrews, to the Gap Road level-crossing removal had only just been disclosed, The Sydney Morning Herald reported. The testimony and the polls arrived alongside the price move. The sources show the timing, but they do not show what moved the market.

The Australian Financial Review reports that Carroll is widely expected to lose and that some in his own party privately hope he does. The market still leaves Labor roughly a 4% chance. Seat projections are less settled than the headline price: Polling Forecast's model gave the Coalition a majority, around 51 of 88 seats, in 56% of simulations. A Coalition win and a Coalition majority are separate questions. Live pricing sits on the Victoria Parliamentary Election Winner market page.

The market settles on the outcome of the 28 November vote.