Who Will Be the Next Prime Minister of Spain? Polls and Latest News

Spain holds a snap general election on 29 November 2026, and the market asks who becomes Prime Minister. Voters choose parliament, and the Prime Minister is then picked through parliamentary investiture. Pedro Sánchez of the PSOE is the incumbent. Alberto Núñez Feijóo of the PP leads the opposition and is the strong favourite, with Vox as a likely partner on the right. Sánchez faces electoral board sanctions files and pressure over a deadly rail crash.

Seats matter more than vote share. The PP is expected to need Vox to reach the 176 seats for a majority, and Feijóo has said he would govern with Vox if needed. The market resolves on 31 March 2028, so it prices who actually governs after any coalition talks, not only who wins on election night.

Nov. 12, 2026: Feijóo's Odds of Becoming Spain's PM Dip to 88% as Vox Gains

Alberto Núñez Feijóo's chance of becoming Spain's next prime minister eased from 92% to 88% over three days on the Next Prime Minister of Spain market, reaching 88% on Nov. 12. Polls published 9-10 November still put his People's Party ahead of Pedro Sánchez's PSOE before the 29 November snap election. Vox is gaining, a general strike paralysed parts of the country, and Feijóo said he would govern with Vox if needed. The 88% prices his chance of becoming prime minister. It is not a vote share.

Are There Polls for Feijóo and the PP Before the 29 November Election?

Yes, and they still favour the PP. The DYM survey for 20minutos, published 10 November, puts the PP at 33.1% and the PSOE at 27.3%, a lead of 5.8 points. The Polling Forecast average puts the PP at 31.3%, the PSOE at 26.8% and Vox at 19.1%. In SocioMétrica's 9 November survey, 48.7% of respondents named Feijóo as the likely next prime minister, against 28% for Sánchez.

The DYM poll's direction matters more than its topline. According to Democrata's write-up of the DYM survey, the PP and PSOE each fell back by the same amount and Vox rose. The PSOE dropped 0.9 points. SW Demoscopia was the main outlier, showing the PSOE up 2.7 points.

A vote-share lead does not guarantee a government. SocioMétrica projects the PP at 127 to 142 seats, short of the 176 needed for a majority. The market's 88% therefore prices whether Feijóo can assemble a governing majority. Finishing first is not enough on its own.

Will Feijóo Need Vox to Govern?

On the seat projections, very likely, and Feijóo no longer hedges on the point. He said on 11 November that he would govern with Vox if that is what it takes to reach a majority. He also ruled out seeking a PSOE abstention and said he had not negotiated ministries with Vox leader Santiago Abascal. He told El País that whether a coalition with Vox is formed "does not depend on me."

If the PP slips while Vox climbs, a Feijóo government would rest more heavily on Abascal's terms. That conclusion comes from reading the polls alongside his remarks. It is not a forecast of any coalition deal. The market asks only who becomes Spain's next prime minister.

Feijóo is also trying to widen his appeal. His 10 November manifesto contains 249 measures, including:

repealing the housing law
a €300bn, 15-year infrastructure plan
a "national priority" rule for public aid
a 100-day audit of the state

He has also pledged to leave the abortion law untouched. ABC describes his media strategy as a push to "seek votes everywhere."

Did the General Strike Move the Feijóo Market?

The timing overlaps, but the sources do not tie the 4-percentage-point dip to any single event. The CCOO and UGT unions held Spain's first general strike in 14 years on 11 November, centred on the housing crisis. Feijóo dismissed it as a failure and a "simulated pre-campaign act." He told laSexta: "on 29 November there is no strike and people will vote."

The case against reading too much into the move is strong. The PP still leads every major poll cited here except SW Demoscopia's outlier. The market, tracked on the Next Prime Minister of Spain odds page, still priced Feijóo as a strong favorite on Nov. 12.

Over the next 17 days, two things deserve the closest watch: whether further polls confirm DYM's Vox gains, and how the televised debates the parties have agreed to play out.

Earlier Updates

Nov. 5, 2026: Feijóo's Odds of Becoming Spain's PM Hit 90% After Urda, Needs Vox

Alberto Núñez Feijóo84% → 90%▲6

On Nov. 5, 2026, Alberto Núñez Feijóo's chances of becoming Spain's next Prime Minister rose to 90% as polls taken after the Urda train crash showed the PSOE losing ground, according to Mapa Electoral. Feijóo's path still depends on Vox, as the PP falls well short of the 176 seats needed for an absolute majority on its own.

Oct. 30, 2026: Sánchez's Chances Fall to 9% After Sixth JEC File, Urda Crash

Pedro Sánchez16% → 9%▼7

On Oct. 29, 2026, Spain's Junta Electoral Central opened a sixth sanctions file against Pedro Sánchez over a pre-campaign video filmed in front of Picasso's "Guernica" at the Reina Sofía museum, a complaint brought by the PP. The same day, the high-speed collision near Toledo that killed at least 69 people intensified pressure on the government, with protesters clashing with police and calls for Transport Minister Óscar Puente to resign, and campaign events were cancelled during national mourning.

Oct. 27, 2026: Sánchez's Odds Fall to 11% as PP and Vox Agree Spain Senate Pact

Pedro Sánchez16% → 11%▼5

On 26 October the PP and Vox agreed a Senate arrangement under which the PP will not stand in Gipuzkoa, Girona and Tarragona and Vox will withdraw from six provinces, according to EL PAÍS. The same day Pedro Sánchez pledged, at a rally in Gijón, that the next legislature would reform the Constitution to protect pensions. An RTVE polling average gave the PP 133 seats, according to RTVE.

Who Will Be the Next Prime Minister of Spain? Polls and Latest News

Next Prime Minister of Spain

Alberto Núñez FeijóoIn this story

Pedro Sánchez

Santiago Abascal

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