Shomari Figures Polls: AL-2 Tied 47-47, Forecast Model Leans Marques

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Shomari Figures Polls: A 47-47 Tie in AL-2, but Forecasters Lean Rhett Marques

Shomari Figures' only public poll in AL-2 shows a 47-47 tie with Trump-endorsed state Rep. Rhett Marques, but Democrats sponsored it (House Majority PAC, conducted by Tulchin). The Cook Political Report rates the Nov. 3 race Lean Republican, and On Point Politics' Oct. 26 model gives Marques a 54% chance. Under Alabama's GOP-favored map, Rep. Terri Sewell's AL-7 is the only safe Democratic seat, so AL-2 decides whether Democrats hold one seat or two.

Those are three different kinds of evidence. The poll measures voter preference in a single partisan-sponsored survey. Cook's rating is a qualitative judgment. On Point's figure is a simulated win probability: the model has Marques ahead by 0.4 points, winning 54% of 2,000 simulated elections, with an 80% range from D +7.0 to R +8.1, according to the On Point Politics forecast. The model's polling average reads D +3.0, yet its overall margin leans Marques, which indicates the district's Republican baseline is pulling against the polls.

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Why the Alabama Democratic House Seats Market Fell From 70% to 62%

On Polymarket, the "1" outcome in "How many House seats will Democrats win in Alabama?" fell from 70% to 62% over three days, an 8-percentage-point drop, and stood at 62% on Oct. 27. That outcome pays if Democrats win exactly one seat, which in practice means AL-7 alone. A lower price signals traders assigning more weight to Democrats also capturing AL-2.

The decline coincides with two forecaster moves. On Oct. 23, Cook shifted AL-2 from Likely Republican to Lean Republican, citing private polling showing a dead heat, as reported by al.com and Alabama Daily News. That shift drew headlines even though Trump would have carried the redrawn district by roughly 14 points in 2024. The Oct. 26 On Point update then labeled the race a toss-up. We could not establish that either update caused the repricing; they are the most visible data points near the move, and no discrete event such as a withdrawal or court ruling surfaced in that window.

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The chart covers the three-day slide that followed Cook's Oct. 23 rating change and ran through the Oct. 26 model update. The 62% reading is also the period low.

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Are There Polls for Alabama's 2nd District?

Public polling is thin. The 47-47 House Majority PAC/Tulchin survey is the only named public poll in the available reporting, and Democratic sponsorship warrants caution. We found no independent public poll of the race. Cook's reference to a "dead heat" rests on private polling that has not been released.

The evidence lines up in a rough order. The sponsored poll reads friendliest to Figures. On Point's polling average (D +3.0) sits close to it, while its full model (Marques 54%) and Cook's rating (Lean R) lean Republican. The market's 62% for a one-seat outcome is a trader-implied probability on the statewide seat count, not a poll and not a direct AL-2 price. Read directionally, it sits closer to the cautious forecasters than to the tied poll.

al.com reports that Figures' path runs through Black-majority cities including Montgomery, Tuskegee and Dothan. His campaign has staged rallies with Sen. Cory Booker and gubernatorial candidate Doug Jones.

Resolved Nov 4, 2026

How many House seats will Democrats win in Alabama?

This market settled on November 4, 2026, so nothing below is tradeable. These are the last prices each venue published before settlement, not live quotes.

Compare every venueClosing prices, not an entry point

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What Could Move the Figures–Marques Odds Before Nov. 3

Three items to watch: the release of any independent AL-2 poll, which would test the 47-47 sponsored result; further rating or model changes from Cook, Sabato's Crystal Ball (currently Lean R) or On Point; and how much Trump's endorsement of Marques anchors the district's Republican lean. Al.com's latest rundown of polls and money tracks the race. Live pricing sits on the Alabama Democratic House seats market page.

The structure stays simple: Democrats are safe only in AL-7, and AL-2 is the swing between one seat and two.