The Odyssey Holds Near 50% for Best Picture as A24 Doc Gains
3 venues53%Up3 ptsfrom 50% when published, 15 days ago
- Nolan's The Odyssey is still the Best Picture favorite near 50%, but a breakout A24 documentary has joined the race.
The Odyssey Trades Near 50% to Win Best Picture at the 2027 Oscars
Christopher Nolan's The Odyssey trades around 50% to win Best Picture at the 2027 Oscars, according to Kalshi data cited by The Lines. The Universal release holds that position even as an A24 documentary has become the season's newest contender.
Across Kalshi and Polymarket, The Odyssey's implied probability rose from about 45% to 50% over the three days ending Oct. 28, after touching a period low of 44%. Kalshi priced it at 52% and Polymarket at 48% on Oct. 28. Sources disagree on the direction of the move. The Lines placed The Odyssey between roughly 46% and 53% on Oct. 28 and described a dip as traders rotated toward the documentary, so readers should treat the three-day gain as approximate.
Expert forecasters agree with the market's ranking. Gold Derby still lists The Odyssey as its top Best Picture pick, and World of Reel ranked it No. 1 on Oct. 26.
Chart note: reported direction for The Odyssey's contract differs across sources over this window.
A24's 'You Can See Everything' Emerges as a New Name After a $19.5M Opening
You Can See Everything, the A24 documentary from Nathan Fielder and Lance Oppenheim, expanded into wide release the weekend of Oct. 24-25 and opened to about $19.5M domestic. The Lines reported that traders turned their attention to the film and that its contract traded near 21% on Kalshi on Oct. 28.
Bookmakers and pundits shifted more sharply than the market did. William Hill cut the film from 50/1 to 9/4, about 31% implied, according to OLBG. Gold Derby also reported that the film's odds climbed after its box-office opening.
We could not establish that the documentary caused The Odyssey's price move. It is a rising contender, but The Odyssey still leads on Kalshi and in Gold Derby's expert rankings, and the documentary prices near 21% on Kalshi against roughly 50% for Nolan's film.
The next test is the 2027 Oscar nominations, which the Academy has scheduled for Thursday, January 21, 2027. A strong nominations tally for You Can See Everything, or a weak showing for The Odyssey, would be the first hard evidence capable of reversing the order now reflected in the Oscar Best Picture market.
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Will The Odyssey win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards? [Yes]In this story
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The story so far: Oscar for Best Picture?
1 update · Nov 13
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