Cardinals Accused of Tanking, So Why Did Their No. 1 Pick Odds Fall?

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Arizona Cardinals' Chances of the No. 1 Pick in the 2027 NFL Draft Fell From 12% to 6%

The Arizona Cardinals have a 6% chance of the first overall pick in the 2027 NFL Draft on Kalshi's "Team to make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2027 Pro Football Draft" market, down from 12% three days earlier. An anonymous NFL general manager said, "They're tanking, bro... They aren't even hiding it," in a report by Jason La Canfora, according to Sports Illustrated. ESPN's FPI gave Arizona the second-best odds of any team to land a top-five pick.

Arizona traded at 6% on Oct. 15, 2026, a drop of 6 percentage points. Those three signals measure different things: the 6% is a traded price, FPI is a statistical model, and the GM's remark is one unnamed opinion.

Live market odds

1 venue

Team to make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2027 Pro Football Draft

Each outcome's chance, from what traders are paying right now on Kalshi.

ArizonaIn this story

2%

Kalshi33.33x3¢

Atlanta

2%

Kalshi50.00x2¢

Carolina

2%

Kalshi50.00x2¢

Los Angeles C

8%

Kalshi8.33x12¢

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Why the Cardinals Look Like a Tanking Team

Arizona went 3-14 in 2025, fired head coach Jonathan Gannon and hired first-time head coach Mike LaFleur, the former Rams offensive coordinator. The team then released Kyler Murray on March 11, 2026, leaving $73.32 million in 2026 dead money per Over the Cap, as Pro Football News detailed.

The replacement plan is thin. Jacoby Brissett is the expected starter, with Gardner Minshew and rookie Carson Beck, the No. 65 pick, behind him. Talks with Jimmy Garoppolo did not produce a deal. Arizona spent its No. 3 overall pick in 2026 on Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love rather than a quarterback.

The outside commentary matches the roster. An agent said "It's all about 2027 for Arizona," and Mike Florio of PFT said the Cardinals are tanking, whether by design or through "chronic ineptitude," per Pro Football Network. None of these sources speaks for the team, and the Cardinals have not confirmed any such intent. ESPN's FPI ranked the roster 29th of 32 entering the season, but its top-five projection is a wider target than the single No. 1 slot this market settles on.

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Arizona vs. the Jets and a Crowded Race for the 2027 No. 1 Pick

Only one team finishes with the worst record, so Arizona's price depends as much on its rivals as on its own losses. The same anonymous sourcing that labeled Arizona a tank framed the Cardinals as competing with the New York Jets for the top pick, according to SportsBoom.

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We could not establish what triggered the three-day slide; the tanking coverage cited here could not be confirmed as published within that window. Our interpretation, not a sourced cause: a team can be openly weak and still lose implied probability when several other teams look equally bad, because every contender splits the same 100%.

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What the Market Can and Can't Tell You About Arizona's 2027 Pick

The contract prices which team holds the No. 1 pick, not which team tanks or whom it selects. Its listed resolution date is Jan. 4, 2027. Readers should check the market's rules for exact settlement wording, including how a traded pick would be treated, before reading the price as a statement about Arizona's record alone. Live prices for every team sit on the 2027 No. 1 overall pick market page.

Analysts expect a quarterback-heavy 2027 class led by Arch Manning, Dante Moore and CJ Carr. Florio warned that Manning might refuse to sign with Arizona, but that is a separate question from who owns the pick, and this market does not price it.

The 6% figure is a market-implied probability as of Oct. 15, 2026, not a forecast from this article.