Victoria Parliamentary Election Winner
Live prediction market odds for Victoria Parliamentary Election Winner. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
Listed Updated Expected to settle by
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Compare all 4 outcomes across 2 venuesTraders give Liberal–National about a 94.8% chance. One Nation follows at 4.0%, Labor follows at 2.6%, and Greens follows at 0.1%. Compare prices from Kalshi and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 4.0 percentage points.
Kalshi
PolymarketKalshiPolymarketBest price among US-regulated venues.
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf Liberals and Nationals wins the 2026 Victorian state election, then the market resolves to Yes. For parliamentary/legislative elections, the winner is the party, coalition, or alliance winning the most seats in the specified chamber. If two parties have the same number of seats, the one entering government will resolve to Yes and all others to No; if both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to Yes and all others to No. For this market, “Liberals and Nationals” means the combined number of Legislative Assembly seats won by candidates endorsed by the Liberal Party of Australia (Victorian Division) or the National Party of Australia – Victoria. This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details.
The winner is determined by the official election results announced by the electoral commission. Factors such as voter turnout and campaign effectiveness play a crucial role in the outcome.
Odds fluctuate based on polling data, campaign developments, and public sentiment leading up to the election. Significant events, such as debates or major endorsements, can also impact market prices.
Trading is scheduled to close on November 29, 2026. However, this does not necessarily coincide with the announcement of the election results.
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.
The latest available prices are Liberal–National: 93.0¢ on Kalshi, 96.5¢ on Polymarket; One Nation: 6.0¢ on Kalshi, 1.9¢ on Polymarket; Labor: 2.6¢ on Polymarket; Greens: 0.1¢ on Polymarket. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.
