Doncic's Scoring Title Odds Hit 74% After 53-Point Night

Luka Doncic has a 74% chance of winning the 2026-27 NBA scoring title, according to Polymarket's "NBA: 2026-27 Points Per Game Leader" market on Nov. 7. Through nine games he averages 40.1 points per game on 361 total points. That puts him 10.2 points ahead of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Stephen Curry, who are tied at 29.9, according to WhyNBA. The latest jump in his average came from a season-high 53 points against Portland on Nov. 6.

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NBA: 2026-27 Points Per Game Leader

Each outcome's chance, from what traders are paying right now on Polymarket US and Polymarket.

Luka DoncicIn this story

83%

PolymarketBest price1.28x78.4¢Polymarket US1.12x89¢

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

52%

PolymarketBest price13.51x7.4¢Polymarket US1.02x98¢

Desmond Bane

4%

Polymarket24.39x4.1¢

Jamal Murray

4%

Polymarket24.39x4.1¢

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Luka Doncic's Chances of Winning the 2026-27 NBA Scoring Title Reach 74%

Polymarket priced Doncic's chance of leading the league in points per game at 74% on Nov. 7. Three days earlier the price was 59%, so the implied probability rose about 15 percentage points. The 59% reading is also the period low for this market.

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Doncic's price in the 2026-27 Points Per Game Leader market rose from 59% to 74% between Nov. 4 and Nov. 7, around his 53-point game against Portland on Nov. 6.

The repricing followed the 53-point performance in a 124-118 NBA Cup win over the Trail Blazers. The night included a 61-foot heave at the halftime buzzer that Doncic said he "decided" to make, per the Associated Press. The Lakers also avenged an earlier loss to Portland, the Los Angeles Times reported.

The game fits a larger pattern. Doncic has six games of 40 or more points this season and two of 50 or more. His run of seven straight games with 35-plus points, 5-plus rebounds, 5-plus assists and 5-plus made threes is a record, according to ESPN. He is also averaging 7.8 rebounds and 7.7 assists on 49.8% shooting, ESPN noted.

Los Angeles is 8-2, alone atop the Western Conference and tied with Philadelphia for the league's best record. Portland's coach called Doncic "the MVP right now."

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What Could Still Change Doncic's Scoring Title Odds

Nine games is a small sample. The market resolves on April 26, 2027, which leaves roughly five months of games to play. The sources do not show whether a 40.1 average can hold over a full season. Doncic himself says he can keep up the pace, adding, "as long as we win, I'm good."

Sources also differ slightly on his exact average. NBA.com and ESPN's MVP ladder listed him at 38.5 points per game, but that figure was published before the 53-point game.

The 10.2-point gap is the number to watch. If it narrows as games accumulate, the 74% price has room to fall back toward the 59% low. If the gap holds through December, the rally gains support. Readers can follow live pricing on the NBA 2026-27 points per game leader market.