Will Bitcoin Hit $50K Before $100K? Slide Below $70K Lifts Odds to 14%

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Will Bitcoin Hit $50,000 Before $100,000? Kalshi Traders Now Say 14%

Bitcoin is still unlikely to hit $50,000 before $100,000 in Kalshi's "Will BTC hit $50,000 before $100,000?" market, where the 50,000 First outcome traded at 14% on Nov. 13. BTC slid to a 12-week low near $69,000 to $71,000 on Nov. 12-13 and dipped below $70,000 for the first time since August, according to investinglive. The move set off about $1.2 billion in liquidations, CoinDesk reported.

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The 14% reading is up about 4 percentage points from 10% three days earlier and roughly 6 points above its period low of 8%. Reports tied the selloff to five straight days of spot bitcoin ETF outflows totaling about $1.44 billion, a hot October CPI print that raised the odds of a December Fed hike, a dollar index above 103, and Jensen Huang's resignation as Nvidia CEO, which hit tech-linked risk assets.

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Why 50,000 First Is Still a Long Shot: Large Kalshi Trades Were All No

The repricing has little large-money conviction behind it. Kalshi's market page lists 27 large trades in the past week, together worth $70,244, and PredictionsMarket.com's tracker shows every one bought No and none bought Yes. The largest was 8,000 contracts on No on Nov. 1.

The price math explains the caution. From $69,000 to $71,000, bitcoin would need to fall another 28% to 30% to touch $50,000 under the CF Real-Time Index before the Dec. 31 deadline. The market resolves No if neither threshold is reached, so a sideways bitcoin also pays No holders.

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Where bitcoin stands is also unsettled. GMT Eight reported that BTC briefly touched an intraday high of $84,853 as SpaceX earnings lifted tech stocks, with ETF inflows resuming and call-option demand rising. That report and the selloff coverage carry overlapping Nov. 13 datelines, and the sources do not establish whether the rebound came before or after the low.

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What Could Confirm or Reverse the 50,000 First Move

Confirmation would look like a clean break below the $69,000 to $71,000 low alongside further ETF outflows, which have reached roughly $2.5 billion since Oct. 30. Analysts flagged $70,000 and about $67,000 as support levels; losing $67,000 would put bitcoin at its weakest in this stretch.

Reversal would look like a sustained move back toward the reported $85,000 level with ETF inflows holding, or large traders continuing to buy only No on the Will BTC hit $50,000 before $100,000? market. With no dated macro release named in the sources, the next checkpoint is how bitcoin trades around the $67,000 to $70,000 support zone.