Will the BoE Raise Rates in December? Hold Bets Fall to 22%

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Will the Bank of England Raise Rates in December 2026? "No Change" Odds Fall to 22%

A December hike by the Bank of England is now the market's leading scenario. The Monetary Policy Committee voted 8-1 on 5 November to raise Bank Rate by 0.25 points to 4%, its first increase since August 2023, according to the Bank of England. Five days later, Deputy Governor Clare Lombardelli declined to rule out another rise at the 17 December meeting. Over three days, the "No change" outcome fell from 58% to 22% on 13 November, a drop of about 36 percentage points, with Kalshi and Polymarket both pricing it at 22%.

Live market odds

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Bank of England rate decision in December

Each outcome's chance, from what traders are paying right now on Kalshi and Polymarket.

No changeIn this story

23%

KalshiBest price4.17x24¢Polymarket4.17x24¢

25 bps increase

72%

KalshiBest price1.39x72¢Polymarket1.35x74¢

25 bps decrease

2%

PolymarketBest price500.00x0.2¢Kalshi33.33x3¢

50+ bps decrease

1%

PolymarketBest price1000.00x0.1¢Kalshi50.00x2¢

50+ bps increase: under 1% eachShow all

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The November vote leaned hawkish. All nine members voted to raise rates: eight preferred a 0.25 point rise to 4%, while Catherine Mann, the lone dissenter from that majority, preferred a 0.50 point rise to 4.25%, according to the Bank of England minutes. There was no vote to hold. UK inflation stands at 3.5%, and the Bank projects it will climb to about 5% by mid-2027 as Middle East conflict pushes up energy prices. Governor Andrew Bailey said the rise was not the first in a long sequence, but further hikes look likely unless the conflict is resolved.

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Goldman Sachs, Deutsche Bank and MUFG Still Favour February 2027

The forecasters have not moved as far as the market. Goldman Sachs, Deutsche Bank and MUFG each favour February 2027 for the next increase over December, exchangerates.org.uk reported. Deutsche Bank calls December "finely balanced" and expects a narrow 5-4 vote to hold. MUFG takes a more hawkish line, flagging a higher risk of back-to-back hikes. Pantheon expects increases in February and April, taking Bank Rate to 4.50%.

Lombardelli's remarks also carry less weight than the price move suggests. She told the Guardian that she did not rule out a December hike but said she did not yet have enough information to decide, Reuters reported. Declining to rule out a move is not a signal that one is coming. The article does not establish that her comments caused the market move.

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What Could Confirm or Reverse the December Repricing

The MPC announces its decision at 12pm on 17 December 2026 and publishes the minutes alongside it. Before then, energy prices, the next CPI prints and the Bank's Agents' pay survey are the swing factors analysts have named. Any de-escalation in the Middle East would weaken Bailey's case for further tightening. Readers can track the full outcome board on the Bank of England December rate decision market.

If "No change" holds near 22%, the market is pricing a real risk of a December hike. A rebound toward its earlier level would mean the bank forecasters' February view is gaining ground.