2026 2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)
Live prediction market odds for 2026 2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot). Compare prices across .
Archived, venue decision pending Listed Updated
This event is archived while we await a venue decision. The chart below shows historical odds.
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the House popular vote margin of victory for the 2026 Midterms.
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the House popular vote margin of victory for the 2026 Midterms. This event is crucial as it will influence the balance of power in Congress and shape legislative priorities for the following years.
Odds for questions with unconfirmed results.
| Question | Result |
|---|---|
Democrats 0-2% | No result |
Democrats 10-12% | No result |
Democrats 12-14% | No result |
Democrats 14-16% | No result |
Democrats 16%+ | No result |
Democrats 2-4% | No result |
Democrats 4-6% | No result |
Democrats 6-8% | No result |
Other | No result |
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between -100 and 0 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
The national House popular vote margin of victory shall be calculated as the vote percentage received by all Democratic party House candidates in the general election minus the vote percentage received by all Republican party House candidates in the general election. The margin will be positive if the Democratic party wins the national House popular vote and negative if they lose the national House popular vote. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range.
Key factors include voter turnout, party messaging, and national issues at the time of the election. Additionally, local dynamics and candidate popularity can significantly affect the outcome.
The House popular vote margin directly impacts the number of seats each party secures in Congress. A wider margin can lead to a stronger majority, influencing legislative agendas and governance.
Prediction markets aggregate the opinions of participants to estimate the likelihood of various outcomes. They can provide insights into public sentiment and potential shifts in voter behavior leading up to the election.
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Venue prices are not currently available on this page. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result. This event is archived; prices shown are historical.
No historical prices are available on this page. The last available price is not necessarily the final settlement price.
Republicans 0-2% |
| No result |
Republicans 2-4% | No result |
Republicans 4-6% | No result |
Republicans 6%+ | No result |
Republicans win | No result |
