About This Market
Traders give Will Greenland vote for independence in 2026 about a 0.8% chance. Before 2027 follows at 0.8%. Compare prices from Kalshi and Polymarket.
Will Greenland vote for independence in 2026?
Will Greenland vote for independence in 2026?
Live prediction market odds for Will Greenland vote for independence in 2026?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Traders give Will Greenland vote for independence in 2026 about a 0.8% chance. Before 2027 follows at 0.8%. Compare prices from Kalshi and Polymarket.
Kalshi
PolymarketKalshiPolymarketOfficial settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Greenland has held an independence referendum after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027 whose outcome is a majority of voters vote for independence, then the market resolves to Yes.
A referendum to join another country will also be considered as an independence referendum for this purpose.
PolymarketThis market will resolve to “Yes” if Greenland holds an independence referendum and a majority of voters in the referendum vote for independence by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A referendum to join a country other than Denmark will be considered to be a referendum for independence. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Greenland and/or Denmark; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Factors include public sentiment, political leadership, and economic considerations. Additionally, international support and historical context may play significant roles.
The vote is scheduled for December 31, 2026. This timing allows for extensive campaigning and public discourse leading up to the decision.
Greenland's independence could shift power dynamics in the Arctic, affecting relations with Denmark and other nations. It may also impact resource management and environmental policies in the region.
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.
The latest available prices are Will Greenland vote for independence in 2026: 0.8¢ on Polymarket; Before 2027: 0.8¢ on Kalshi. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.