US grants license for new nuclear reactor in 2026? - 7% Chance

Live Markets

2 platforms

OutcomeConsensus

Kalshi

Polymarket

Best price

UG

US grants license for new nuclear reactor in 2026

7%

Platform	Implied %	Yes bid / ask		No bid / ask
Kalshi	7.0%	6¢	7¢	93¢	94¢
Polymarket	6.0%	4¢	8¢	92¢	96¢

Kalshi

Polymarket

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.

Kalshi

Primary Rule

If the Nuclear Regulatory Commission has issued a new combined license authorizing the construction and operations of a new nuclear nuclear power facility, then the market resolves to Yes.

Resolution Oracles

Nuclear Regulatory Commission

Polymarket

Primary Rule

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) issues a new combined license (COL) for the construction and operation of a nuclear power plant by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A combined license must be clearly identified as such and documented in official NRC releases. Only initial issuances count; amendments, renewals, or partial approvals do not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Resolution Oracles

UMA Optimistic OracleConsensus of Sources

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors influence the decision to grant a nuclear reactor license?

Factors include regulatory compliance, safety assessments, public opinion, and political support. Additionally, advancements in technology and energy needs play a crucial role.

How does this event affect the nuclear energy sector?

Granting a license could lead to increased investment in nuclear energy projects and influence the overall energy mix. It may also affect job creation and technological innovation in the sector.

What are the potential environmental implications of new nuclear reactors?

New reactors could provide low-carbon energy, contributing to climate change mitigation efforts. However, concerns about waste management and safety must also be addressed.

What does the US grants license for new nuclear reactor in 2026 prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest US grants license for new nuclear reactor in 2026 odds?

The latest available prices are US grants license for new nuclear reactor in 2026: 7.0¢ on Kalshi, 6.0¢ on Polymarket. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.