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Live prediction market odds for CA-22 House winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket and PredictIt.

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CA-22 House winner?

2026-11-04

Best price · tap to trade

Randy Villegas (D)89¢1.12xPolymarket USDavid Valadao (R)10¢10.00xKalshi

About This Market

Traders give Randy Villegas (D) about a 90.5% chance. David Valadao (R) follows at 10.3%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket, and PredictIt. The largest cross-platform price difference is 41.1 percentage points.

Traders give Randy Villegas (D) about a 90.5% chance. David Valadao (R) follows at 10.3%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket, and PredictIt. The largest cross-platform price difference is 41.1 percentage points.

Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the CA-22 House race. This election is pivotal as it could influence the balance of power in Congress, impacting key legislation and governance strategies.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

4 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
Kalshi
Polymarket US
Polymarket
PredictIt
Best price
RV
Randy Villegas (D)
91%
Kalshi92¢
Polymarket US89¢
Polymarket92¢
PredictIt99¢
Polymarket US1.12x89¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
91.6%89¢92¢8¢11¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
89.0%88¢89¢11¢12¢
PolymarketPolymarket
91.0%90¢92¢8¢10¢
PredictItPredictIt
50.5%2¢99¢1¢98¢
DV
David Valadao (R)
10%
Kalshi10¢
Polymarket US12¢
Polymarket11¢
—
Kalshi10.00x10¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
10.0%8¢10¢90¢92¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
12.0%11¢12¢88¢89¢
PolymarketPolymarket
9.0%8¢11¢89¢92¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarket USPolymarket USPolymarketPolymarketPredictItPredictIt

Candidate Spotlight

About Randy Villegas (D)

Randy Villegas is a political science professor at the College of the Sequoias in Visalia and serves on the Visalia Unified School District Board of Education. He was elected to the school board in November 2022 after being appointed in December 2021. Villegas is a Democratic candidate for California's 22nd Congressional District, aiming to represent the Central Valley in the U.S. House of Representatives.

About David Valadao (R)

David Valadao is the U.S. Representative for California's 22nd Congressional District, serving his sixth term in the House of Representatives. He previously represented California's 21st Congressional District from 2013 to 2019 and from 2021 to 2023. Valadao has been a member of the House Appropriations Committee since 2013, overseeing federal funding decisions.

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Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread41.1%
Platforms4
Candidates2
Leader

Randy Villegas (D)

90.5% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: CA-22 House winner?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket US.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If the House member sworn in for CA-22 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of Democratic, then the market resolves to Yes.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
Polymarket USPolymarket US
Primary Rule

This market will settle to Yes if a representative of the Democratic Party wins the 2026 midterm election for the CA-22 congressional district seat. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities. The determination of the winner includes any runoff, tiebreak, or other relevant procedure under the applicable rules of the relevant jurisdiction.

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors influence the odds for the CA-22 House race?

Factors include candidate popularity, campaign funding, voter turnout, and polling data. Local issues and national trends can also sway public opinion leading up to the election.

When is the CA-22 House election taking place?

The election is scheduled for November 4, 2026. This timing aligns with the general election cycle in the United States.

How do prediction markets work for elections like CA-22?

Prediction markets allow participants to buy and sell shares based on their expectations of election outcomes. Prices reflect the collective belief of participants about the likelihood of each candidate winning.

What does the CA-22 House winner prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket, PredictIt in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest CA-22 House winner odds?

The latest available prices are Randy Villegas (D): 91.6¢ on Kalshi, 91.0¢ on Polymarket, 50.5¢ on PredictIt, 89.0¢ on Polymarket US; David Valadao (R): 10.0¢ on Kalshi, 9.0¢ on Polymarket, 12.0¢ on Polymarket US. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Prediction HuntPrediction.com coverage

Villegas Leads CA-22 Polls but Market Probability Fell 12 Points in 3Forecasters rate CA-22 a Toss-up despite Villegas's 48-44 polling lead, and his win probability has slipped to 77% as traders discount the lone partisan survey.Sep 29, 2026