How much will the US acquire Greenland for?
Live prediction market odds for How much will the US acquire Greenland for?. Compare prices across Kalshi.
Listed Updated Expected to settle by
Traders give $0 / No Acquisition about a 92.3% chance. $10 Billion To $99 Billion follows at 1.9%, $600 Billion To $899 Billion follows at 1.9%, and $100 Billion To $299 Billion follows at 1.9%. Compare prices from Kalshi.
KalshiKalshiOfficial settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf the Total Monetary Consideration for a U.S. Acquisition of Greenland is exactly $0 / No Acquisition during Trump's term, then the market resolves to Yes.
The Total Monetary Consideration includes cash payments, Treasury securities, direct payments to residents, recurring economic assistance (calculated as 50 times the annual amount if the term exceeds 50 years), infrastructure commitments, assumed debt, and other quantified financial commitments. It excludes the imputed value of military protection, non-quantified promises, the value of citizenship or visa-free travel, and the estimated value of natural resources or strategic positioning. Values are rounded to the nearest $1 billion USD. An "Acquisition of Greenland" requires a treaty transferring sovereignty, Senate ratification, formal White House announcement of territorial status, or a Compact of Free Association with exclusive military access. It does not include expanded base rights, trade agreements, or military occupation without a formal agreement. If no acquisition occurs in the time period, markets resolve to Yes for the "$0 / No Acquisition" bracket and No for all other brackets.
Factors include geopolitical interests, economic resources, and strategic military considerations. Additionally, public opinion and international reactions may also impact negotiations.
Acquiring Greenland could enhance US influence in the Arctic, a region rich in natural resources and strategic military importance. It also raises questions about sovereignty and indigenous rights.
The US has shown interest in Greenland since World War II, viewing it as a strategic location. Recent discussions have reignited interest due to climate change and the opening of new shipping routes.
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.
The latest available prices are $0 / No Acquisition: 92.3¢ on Kalshi; $10 Billion To $99 Billion: 1.9¢ on Kalshi; $600 Billion To $899 Billion: 1.9¢ on Kalshi; $100 Billion To $299 Billion: 1.9¢ on Kalshi. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.
