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Live prediction market odds for How much will the US acquire Greenland for?. Compare prices across Kalshi.

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How much will the US acquire Greenland for?

2029-01-22

Best price · tap to trade

$0 / No Acquisition92¢1.09xKalshi$10 billion to $99 billion3¢33.33xKalshi$300 billion to $599 billion3¢33.33xKalshi
Compare all 8 outcomes across 1 venue

About This Market

Traders give $0 / No Acquisition about a 91.7% chance. $10 billion to $99 billion follows at 2.7%, $300 billion to $599 billion follows at 2.2%, and $1 billion to $9 billion follows at 1.4%. Compare prices from Kalshi.

Traders give $0 / No Acquisition about a 91.7% chance. $10 billion to $99 billion follows at 2.7%, $300 billion to $599 billion follows at 2.2%, and $1 billion to $9 billion follows at 1.4%. Compare prices from Kalshi.

Kalshi is tracking the potential acquisition price of Greenland by the US, set for January 2029. This event holds geopolitical implications, as the value of such a transaction could influence international relations and economic strategies in the Arctic region.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

1 platform
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
Best price
$/
$0 / No Acquisition
single venue92%
Kalshi92¢
Kalshi1.09x92¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
91.7%90¢92¢8¢10¢
$B
$10 billion to $99 billion
single venue3%
Kalshi3¢
Kalshi37.04x3¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
2.7%1¢3¢97¢99¢
$B
$300 billion to $599 billion
single venue2%
Kalshi3¢
Kalshi30.30x3¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
2.2%1¢3¢97¢99¢
$B
$1 billion to $9 billion
single venue1%
Kalshi2¢
Kalshi41.67x2¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
1.4%0¢2¢98¢100¢
$B
$100 billion to $299 billion
single venue1%
Kalshi3¢
Kalshi40.00x3¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
1.2%1¢3¢98¢99¢
KalshiKalshi

Smart Trade Router

$
¢

Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread0.0%
Platforms1
Candidates8
Leader

$0 / No Acquisition

91.7% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: How much will the US acquire Greenland for?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If the Total Monetary Consideration for a U.S. Acquisition of Greenland is exactly $0 / No Acquisition during Trump's term, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

The Total Monetary Consideration includes cash payments, Treasury securities, direct payments to residents, recurring economic assistance (calculated as 50 times the annual amount if the term exceeds 50 years), infrastructure commitments, assumed debt, and other quantified financial commitments. It excludes the imputed value of military protection, non-quantified promises, the value of citizenship or visa-free travel, and the estimated value of natural resources or strategic positioning. Values are rounded to the nearest $1 billion USD. An "Acquisition of Greenland" requires a treaty transferring sovereignty, Senate ratification, formal White House announcement of territorial status, or a Compact of Free Association with exclusive military access. It does not include expanded base rights, trade agreements, or military occupation without a formal agreement. If no acquisition occurs in the time period, markets resolve to Yes for the "$0 / No Acquisition" bracket and No for all other brackets.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors influence the acquisition price of Greenland?

Factors include geopolitical interests, economic resources, and strategic military considerations. Additionally, public opinion and international reactions may also impact negotiations.

Why is the acquisition of Greenland significant?

Acquiring Greenland could enhance US influence in the Arctic, a region rich in natural resources and strategic military importance. It also raises questions about sovereignty and indigenous rights.

What historical context surrounds the US interest in Greenland?

The US has shown interest in Greenland since World War II, viewing it as a strategic location. Recent discussions have reignited interest due to climate change and the opening of new shipping routes.

How much will the US acquire Greenland for: what does this prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

How much will the US acquire Greenland for: what are the current odds?

The latest available prices are $0 / No Acquisition: 91.7¢ on Kalshi; $10 billion to $99 billion: 2.7¢ on Kalshi; $300 billion to $599 billion: 2.2¢ on Kalshi; $1 billion to $9 billion: 1.4¢ on Kalshi. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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