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Live prediction market odds for MA-09 House winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket.

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MA-09 House winner?

Listed Sep 18, 2026 · Updated Oct 15, 2026 · Expected to settle by Jan 4, 2027

2026 Midterms hubNew

Every 2026 House seat beside the Senate and governor races, priced across every venue.
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Best price · tap to trade

Bill Keating (D)98¢1.02xKalshiTyler MacAllister (R)2¢50.00xPolymarket US

About This Market

Traders give Bill Keating (D) about a 97.1% chance. Tyler MacAllister (R) follows at 2.1%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 1.3 percentage points.

Traders give Bill Keating (D) about a 97.1% chance. Tyler MacAllister (R) follows at 2.1%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 1.3 percentage points.

Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the MA-09 House election, scheduled for November 3, 2026. The market resolves based on the official results announced by the Massachusetts Secretary of State after the election concludes, with odds fluctuating based on candidate campaigns and voter sentiment leading up to the date.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

3 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
Polymarket USPolymarket US
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
BK
Bill Keating (D)
97%
Kalshi98¢
Polymarket US99¢
Polymarket99¢
Kalshi1.02x98¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
96.8%96¢98¢2¢4¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
97.5%96¢99¢1¢4¢
PolymarketPolymarket
97.0%96¢99¢2¢5¢
TM
Tyler MacAllister (R)
2%
Kalshi4¢
Polymarket US2¢
Polymarket4¢
Polymarket US50.00x2¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
1.9%0.4¢4¢97¢99.6¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
1.5%1¢2¢98¢99¢
PolymarketPolymarket
2.8%2¢4¢96¢99¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarket USPolymarket USPolymarketPolymarket

Candidate Spotlight

About Bill Keating (D)

Bill Keating is the U.S. Representative for Massachusetts's 9th congressional district, serving since 2013. Before Congress, he was the District Attorney of Norfolk County from 1999 to 2011. He is currently the ranking member of the Europe, Eurasia, and Emerging Threats Subcommittee on the House Foreign Affairs Committee.

About Tyler MacAllister (R)

Tyler MacAllister is a Republican candidate for Massachusetts's 9th Congressional District in the 2026 U.S. House election. He served five terms on the Mattapoisett Select Board and is a commercial fisherman and charter boat captain. His leadership in local government and commitment to the fishing industry make him a notable contender in this race.

Smart Trade Router

$
¢

Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread1.3%
Platforms3
Candidates2
Volume$39K
Leader

Bill Keating (D)

97.1% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: MA-09 House winner?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket US.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If the House member sworn in for MA-09 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
Polymarket USPolymarket US
Primary Rule

This market will settle to Yes if the Republican Party nominee wins the 2026 midterm election for the MA-09 congressional district seat. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities. The determination of the winner includes any runoff, tiebreak, or other relevant procedure under the applicable rules of the relevant jurisdiction.

Frequently Asked Questions

When is the MA-09 House election scheduled?

The MA-09 House election is set for November 3, 2026. This date is critical for determining the official winner.

What factors influence the odds for the MA-09 House winner?

Odds for the MA-09 House winner are influenced by candidate campaigns, polling data, and voter sentiment. Changes in these factors can lead to fluctuations in market prices.

How is the winner of the MA-09 House election determined?

The winner is determined by the official election results announced by the Massachusetts Secretary of State. This announcement occurs after the polls close on election day.

What does the MA-09 House winner prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest MA-09 House winner odds?

The latest available prices are Bill Keating (D): 96.8¢ on Kalshi, 97.0¢ on Polymarket, 97.5¢ on Polymarket US; Tyler MacAllister (R): 1.9¢ on Kalshi, 2.8¢ on Polymarket, 1.5¢ on Polymarket US. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Trader up $26.5K lifetime bought $1.9K of Yes at 97¢

2d ago
PolymarketPolymarket USWill the Democratic Party win the MA-09 House seat?Trade on Polymarket US →
No price history available