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Live prediction market odds for Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket and Predict.fun.

Kalshi

Kalshi

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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

Kalshi / Polymarket US / Polymarket / Predict.fun

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Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026

2026-10-10

Best price · tap to trade

Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms (ERRs)13¢7.69xKalshiDoctors Without Borders (Médecins Sans Frontières)13¢7.69xKalshiYulia Navalnaya7¢14.29xPolymarket US
Compare all 27 outcomes across 4 venues

About This Market

Traders give Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms (ERRs) about a 13.0% chance. Doctors Without Borders (Médecins Sans Frontières) follows at 9.0%, Yulia Navalnaya follows at 6.5%, and International Court of Justice follows at 5.0%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket, and Predict.fun. The largest cross-platform price difference is 42.8 percentage points.

Traders give Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms (ERRs) about a 13.0% chance. Doctors Without Borders (Médecins Sans Frontières) follows at 9.0%, Yulia Navalnaya follows at 6.5%, and International Court of Justice follows at 5.0%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket, and Predict.fun. The largest cross-platform price difference is 42.8 percentage points.

Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the Nobel Peace Prize Winner for 2026. The outcome of this prestigious award can influence global political dynamics and highlight key humanitarian efforts recognized by the international community.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

4 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
Kalshi
Polymarket US
Polymarket
Predict.fun
Best price
SE
Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms (ERRs)
single venue13%
Kalshi13¢
—
—
—
Kalshi7.69x13¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
13.0%12¢13¢87¢88¢
DW
Doctors Without Borders (Médecins Sans Frontières)
single venue9%
Kalshi13¢
—
—
—
Kalshi7.69x13¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
9.0%9¢13¢87¢91¢
YN
Yulia Navalnaya
7%
—
Polymarket US7¢
Polymarket6¢
Predict.fun7¢
Polymarket US14.29x7¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
Polymarket USPolymarket US
7.0%6¢7¢93¢94¢
PolymarketPolymarket
6.0%5¢6¢94¢95¢
Predict.funPredict.fun
6.5%6¢7¢94¢94¢
IC
International Court of Justice
5%
Kalshi5¢
—
Polymarket5¢
Predict.fun8¢
Kalshi20.00x5¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
5.0%4¢5¢95¢96¢
PolymarketPolymarket
5.0%5¢5¢95¢95¢
Predict.funPredict.fun
5.0%2¢8¢92¢98¢
U
UNRWA
4%
—
Polymarket US5¢
Polymarket5¢
Predict.fun4¢
Polymarket US20.00x5¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
Polymarket USPolymarket US
4.0%4¢5¢95¢96¢
PolymarketPolymarket
4.6%4¢5¢95¢96¢
Predict.funPredict.fun
4.3%4¢4¢96¢96¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarket USPolymarket USPolymarketPolymarketPredict.funPredict.fun

Best price among US-regulated venues.

Candidate Spotlight

About Yulia Navalnaya

Yulia Navalnaya is the Chair of the Human Rights Foundation and the Anti-Corruption Foundation. She was elected Chair of the Human Rights Foundation on July 1, 2024, succeeding Garry Kasparov. She is a candidate for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize in the political category.

About Narges Mohammadi

Narges Mohammadi is an Iranian human rights activist and journalist. She was awarded the 2023 Nobel Peace Prize for her fight against the oppression of women in Iran and her promotion of human rights and freedom for all. She is currently imprisoned in Iran, where she continues her activism despite facing multiple arrests and convictions.

About Volodymyr Zelenskyy

Volodymyr Zelenskyy is the current President of Ukraine, serving since 2019. He gained international prominence for his leadership during the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022. His role in navigating the ongoing conflict and seeking international support makes him a significant figure in discussions about the Nobel Peace Prize.

About Donald Trump

Donald Trump is the 47th and current President of the United States, serving his second term since January 2025. He previously served as the 45th President from 2017 to 2021. His current role is relevant to the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize prediction market.

About Francesca Albanese

Francesca Albanese is the United Nations Special Rapporteur on the occupied Palestinian territories. She previously served as a human rights expert for the UN, including the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights and the UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees. She is relevant to this prediction market due to her significant role in addressing human rights issues in the occupied Palestinian territories.

Smart Trade Router

$
¢

Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Nobel Prize organization
PolymarketPolymarket
UMA Optimistic Oracle
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread42.8%
Platforms4
Candidates27
Leader

Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms (ERRs)

13.0% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket and Polymarket US and Predict.fun.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If Donald Trump wins the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Resolution Oracles
Nobel Prize organization
PolymarketPolymarket
Primary Rule

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

Resolution Oracles
UMA Optimistic Oracle
Polymarket USPolymarket US
Primary Rule

If Donald Trump wins the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, this market will settle to Yes. Outcome verified by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. The specified person or organization will be considered to have won the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize if they are announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee as the sole or joint recipient of the Prize. Membership or leadership in an organization that receives the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize will not count for settlement.

Predict.funPredict.fun
Primary Rule

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors influence the odds for the Nobel Peace Prize Winner?

Odds are influenced by current events, nominees' public actions, and global political climates. Media coverage and public opinion also play significant roles in shaping perceptions of potential winners.

When is the Nobel Peace Prize announced?

The Nobel Peace Prize is typically announced on the second Friday of October each year. In 2026, this date falls on October 10.

How does the Nobel Peace Prize impact global politics?

Winning the Nobel Peace Prize can elevate a recipient's profile and amplify their causes on a global stage. It often leads to increased advocacy and support for the issues they represent.

What does the Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026 prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket, Predict.fun in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026 odds?

The latest available prices are Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms (ERRs): 13.0¢ on Kalshi; Doctors Without Borders (Médecins Sans Frontières): 9.0¢ on Kalshi; Yulia Navalnaya: 6.0¢ on Polymarket, 7.0¢ on Polymarket US, 6.5¢ on Predict.fun; International Court of Justice: 5.0¢ on Kalshi, 5.0¢ on Polymarket, 5.0¢ on Predict.fun. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

Prediction HuntPrediction.com coverage

Trump Nobel Peace Prize Volume Doubles With 3 Weeks to AnnouncementDaily volume hit $98,631 on Sep 18, more than double the $45,326 baseline. Trump's composite probability held flat at 7%, though platform prices range from 2% to 20%.Sep 19, 2026

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Final odds
Smart Money Positioning (24 hours)
Full Feed

Smart money is heavily fading Donald Trump

Smart Money Consensus$12.5K
$12.5KNo
Smart Traders Split4
4No
KalshiBuy No at 99¢Best price among US-regulated venues.

$10K+ lifetime-profit wallets · 24h net flow

UNRWA
No$490 · 2 whales
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Yes-$192 · 0 whales
Donald Trump
No$12.5K · 4 whales

$10K+ lifetime-profit wallets · 24h net flow

Smart Money Feed
Full Feed

Live tracking of high-volume trades from historically profitable accounts.

Trader up $393K lifetime bet $2.2K on No at 99¢

2h ago
PolymarketPolymarket USWill Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Trade on Polymarket US →

Trader up $147K lifetime bet $1.7K on No at 98¢

13h ago
PolymarketPolymarket USWill Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Trade on Polymarket US →

Trader up $60.4K lifetime bet $516 on No at 98¢

16h ago
PolymarketPolymarket USWill Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Trade on Polymarket US →

Trader up $60.4K lifetime bet $516 on No at 98¢

16h ago
PolymarketPolymarket USWill Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Trade on Polymarket US →

Trader up $60.4K lifetime bet $516 on No at 98¢

16h ago
PolymarketPolymarket USWill Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Trade on Polymarket US →

Prediction Market Track Record

TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?LOSTPre-event: 1%

Prediction Market Track Record

Top 5 Most Searched People on Google in 2025LOSTPre-event: 1%Maduro out in 2025?LOSTPre-event: 2%#1 Searched Person on Google this year?LOSTPre-event: 1%TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?LOSTPre-event: 3%Who will Trump talk to in JanuaryWONPre-event: 99%

Historical Track Record

Scroll to view past markets

TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?

Resolved

2025-12-31

LOSTDonald Trump
Pre-event: 1%

Top 5 Most Searched People on Google in 2025

Resolved

2025-12-31

LOSTDonald Trump
Pre-event: 1%

Maduro out in 2025?

Resolved

2025-12-31

LOSTVolodymyr Zelenskyy
Pre-event: 2%

#1 Searched Person on Google this year?

Resolved

2025-12-31

LOSTDonald Trump
Pre-event: 1%

Who will Trump talk to in January

Resolved

2026-01-31

WONVolodymyr Zelenskyy
Pre-event: 99%

Who will attend the State of the Union?

Resolved

2026-02-24

WONDonald Trump
Pre-event: 0%

Who will visit Iran before July?

Resolved

2026-06-30

WONDonald Trump
Pre-event: 100%

Prediction Market Track Record

Top 5 Most Searched People on Google in 2025LOSTPre-event: 1%#1 Searched Person on Google this year?LOSTPre-event: 1%TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?LOSTPre-event: 1%Who will attend the State of the Union?WONPre-event: 0%Who will visit Iran before July?WONPre-event: 100%