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Live prediction market odds for Texas Senate winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket and PredictIt and Predict.fun.

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Kalshi / Polymarket / PredictIt / Predict.fun

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Texas Senate winner?

2026-11-03

Best price · tap to trade

James Talarico (D)60¢1.67xKalshiKen Paxton (R)41¢2.44xKalshi

About This Market

Traders give James Talarico (D) about a 60.0% chance. Ken Paxton (R) follows at 40.3%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt, and Predict.fun. The largest cross-platform price difference is 3.5 percentage points.

Traders give James Talarico (D) about a 60.0% chance. Ken Paxton (R) follows at 40.3%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt, and Predict.fun. The largest cross-platform price difference is 3.5 percentage points.

Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the Texas Senate winner for the upcoming 2026 election. This race is pivotal as it could influence the balance of power in the Senate and reflect voter sentiment on key issues in Texas.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

4 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
Kalshi
Polymarket
PredictIt
Predict.fun
Best price
JT
James Talarico (D)
60%
Kalshi60¢
Polymarket61¢
PredictIt59¢
—
Kalshi1.67x60¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
60.0%59¢60¢40¢41¢
PolymarketPolymarket
60.0%60¢61¢39¢40¢
PredictItPredictIt
59.0%58¢59¢41¢42¢
KP
Ken Paxton (R)ARB
40%
Kalshi41¢
Polymarket40¢
PredictIt43¢
Predict.fun41¢
Kalshi2.44x41¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
41.0%40¢41¢59¢60¢
PolymarketPolymarket
39.5%39¢40¢60¢61¢
PredictItPredictIt
43.0%42¢43¢57¢58¢
Predict.funPredict.fun
39.5%38¢41¢59¢62¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarketPolymarketPredictItPredictItPredict.funPredict.fun

Best price among US-regulated venues.

Candidate Spotlight

About James Talarico (D)

James Talarico is a Democratic member of the Texas House of Representatives, representing the 50th district since 2023. He previously served the 52nd district from 2018 to 2023. Talarico has been recognized for his legislative achievements, including passing significant education reforms and healthcare legislation.

About Ken Paxton (R)

Ken Paxton is the 51st Attorney General of Texas, leading over 4,000 employees in 38 divisions and 117 offices statewide. He previously served in the Texas Senate and House of Representatives. Paxton is currently a candidate for the U.S. Senate, challenging incumbent Senator John Cornyn in the Republican primary.

Smart Trade Router

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¢

Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
United States Congress
PolymarketPolymarket
UMA Optimistic Oracle
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread3.5%
Platforms4
Candidates2
Leader

James Talarico (D)

60.0% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: Texas Senate winner?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket and Predict.fun.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If a representative of the Democratic party is sworn in as a Senator of Texas for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Resolution Oracles
United States Congress
PolymarketPolymarket
Primary Rule

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Resolution Oracles
UMA Optimistic Oracle
Predict.funPredict.fun
Primary Rule

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors influence the Texas Senate race?

Key factors include candidate popularity, campaign funding, and voter turnout. Additionally, national political trends and local issues will play significant roles in shaping voter decisions.

How do prediction markets determine odds for this event?

Odds in prediction markets are based on the collective sentiment of traders regarding the likelihood of each candidate winning. These odds fluctuate with new information, such as polling data and campaign developments.

What is at stake in the Texas Senate election?

Control of the Senate could hinge on the outcome of this election, impacting legislation on various issues. The Texas Senate seat is historically significant and often reflects broader political trends in the country.

What does the Texas Senate winner prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt, Predict.fun in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest Texas Senate winner odds?

The latest available prices are James Talarico (D): 60.0¢ on Kalshi, 60.0¢ on Polymarket, 59.0¢ on PredictIt; Ken Paxton (R): 41.0¢ on Kalshi, 39.5¢ on Polymarket, 43.0¢ on PredictIt, 39.5¢ on Predict.fun. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Prediction HuntPrediction.com coverage

Texas Senate Volume Spikes 7x as Whistleblower Ad and $10M MAGA Buy LandTraders pushed $240K through the Texas Senate market on Sep 9, nearly 7x the baseline. A former Paxton aide's endorsement ad and a $10M MAGA Inc. buy both dropped that week.Sep 10, 2026

Prediction Market Track Record

Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas in 2026?WONPre-event: 99%

Prediction Market Track Record

2nd place in first round of Texas Republican Senate Primary?WONPre-event: 15%3rd place in first round of Texas Republican Senate Primary?LOSTPre-event: 1%Who will Donald Trump talk to in Apr 2026?LOSTPre-event: 22%

Historical Track Record

Scroll to view past markets

Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas in 2026?

Resolved

2026-05-01

WONJames Talarico (D)
Pre-event: 99%

2nd place in first round of Texas Republican Senate Primary?

Resolved

2026-03-03

WONKen Paxton (R)
Pre-event: 15%

3rd place in first round of Texas Republican Senate Primary?

Resolved

2026-03-03

LOSTKen Paxton (R)
Pre-event: 1%

Who will Donald Trump talk to in Apr 2026?

Resolved

2026-04-30

LOSTKen Paxton (R)
Pre-event: 22%