US GDP growth in Q3 2026?
Live prediction market odds for US GDP growth in Q3 2026?. Compare prices across .
This market has closed on Oct 29, 2026. The chart below shows historical odds.
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking predictions regarding US GDP growth in Q3 2026.
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking predictions regarding US GDP growth in Q3 2026. Economic indicators, fiscal policies, and global market conditions will influence growth expectations and investor sentiment leading up to the release of official data.
| Question | Result |
|---|---|
Above 0.5%WINNER | Yes |
Above 1.0%WINNER | Yes |
Above 1.5%WINNER | Yes |
Above 2.0%WINNER | Yes |
Above 2.5%WINNER | Yes |
0.5–1.0% | No |
1.0–1.5% | No |
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket US.
KalshiIf real GDP (as measured by the BEA’s seasonally adjusted and annualized Advance Estimate) increases by more than 0.5, then the market resolves to Yes.
The market will close at 8:29 AM on the day of the expected release of the data. The market will expire at the first 10:00 AM following the release of the data for Q3 2026, or 3 months following that expected date of data release. Please note the Expiration Value is the one-decimal value published by the BEA.
Polymarket USThis market will settle to Yes if the seasonally adjusted annualized rate of real U.S. GDP growth for Q3 2026 is above 0.5%. Outcome sourced from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Settlement is based on the Advance Estimate GDP release published by the BEA, currently scheduled for October 29, 2026. Any subsequent revisions to this figure will not be considered for settlement purposes. If the figure is not published on the scheduled date, the first officially published Q3 2026 figure will be used. If no qualifying GDP figure is released within three months of the Advance Estimate GDP scheduled release date, this market will resolve based on data from the most recent previous quarter with available data.
Predictions are influenced by consumer spending, business investment, government policies, and international trade. Changes in these areas can significantly impact economic performance.
GDP growth is a key indicator of economic health, affecting employment rates, inflation, and overall market confidence. Investors closely monitor these figures to make informed decisions.
GDP data is typically released quarterly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Each report provides insights into economic performance and trends over time.
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Venue prices are not currently available on this page. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result. This event is archived; prices shown are historical.
No historical prices are available on this page. The last available price is not necessarily the final settlement price.
