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Live prediction market odds for US GDP growth in Q3 2026?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket.

Kalshi

Kalshi

4.9
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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

Kalshi / Polymarket US / Polymarket

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US GDP growth in Q3 2026?

2026-10-29

Best price · tap to trade

Above 0.5%95¢1.05xPolymarket USAbove 1.0%92¢1.09xPolymarket USAbove 1.5%88¢1.14xKalshi
Compare all 7 outcomes across 3 venues

About This Market

Traders give Above 0.5% about a 96.5% chance. Above 1.0% follows at 92.5%, Above 1.5% follows at 87.0%, and Above 2.0% follows at 84.8%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 5.0 percentage points.

Traders give Above 0.5% about a 96.5% chance. Above 1.0% follows at 92.5%, Above 1.5% follows at 87.0%, and Above 2.0% follows at 84.8%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 5.0 percentage points.

Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking predictions regarding US GDP growth in Q3 2026. Economic indicators, fiscal policies, and global market conditions will influence growth expectations and investor sentiment leading up to the release of official data.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

3 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
Polymarket USPolymarket US
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
A0
Above 0.5%ARB
97%
Kalshi99¢
Polymarket US95¢
—
Polymarket US1.05x95¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
99.0%97¢99¢1¢3¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
94.0%94¢95¢5¢6¢
A1
Above 1.0%
93%
Kalshi96¢
Polymarket US92¢
—
Polymarket US1.09x92¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
93.0%92¢96¢4¢8¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
92.0%91¢92¢8¢9¢
A1
Above 1.5%
87%
Kalshi88¢
Polymarket US89¢
—
Kalshi1.14x88¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
86.0%84¢88¢12¢16¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
88.0%88¢89¢11¢12¢
A2
Above 2.0%
85%
Kalshi85¢
Polymarket US86¢
—
Kalshi1.18x85¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
84.5%84¢85¢15¢16¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
85.0%85¢86¢14¢15¢
A2
Above 2.5%
78%
Kalshi83¢
Polymarket US77¢
—
Polymarket US1.30x77¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
79.0%71¢83¢17¢29¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
76.0%76¢77¢23¢24¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarket USPolymarket USPolymarketPolymarket

Smart Trade Router

$
¢

Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread5.0%
Platforms3
Candidates7
Leader

Above 0.5%

96.5% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: US GDP growth in Q3 2026?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket US.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If real GDP (as measured by the BEA’s seasonally adjusted and annualized Advance Estimate) increases by more than 0.5, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

The market will close at 8:29 AM on the day of the expected release of the data. The market will expire at the first 10:00 AM following the release of the data for Q3 2026, or 3 months following that expected date of data release. Please note the Expiration Value is the one-decimal value published by the BEA.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
Polymarket USPolymarket US
Primary Rule

This market will settle to Yes if the seasonally adjusted annualized rate of real U.S. GDP growth for Q3 2026 is above 0.5%. Outcome sourced from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Settlement is based on the Advance Estimate GDP release published by the BEA, currently scheduled for October 29, 2026. Any subsequent revisions to this figure will not be considered for settlement purposes. If the figure is not published on the scheduled date, the first officially published Q3 2026 figure will be used. If no qualifying GDP figure is released within three months of the Advance Estimate GDP scheduled release date, this market will resolve based on data from the most recent previous quarter with available data.

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors influence GDP growth predictions?

Predictions are influenced by consumer spending, business investment, government policies, and international trade. Changes in these areas can significantly impact economic performance.

Why is Q3 2026 GDP growth important?

GDP growth is a key indicator of economic health, affecting employment rates, inflation, and overall market confidence. Investors closely monitor these figures to make informed decisions.

How often is GDP data released?

GDP data is typically released quarterly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Each report provides insights into economic performance and trends over time.

What does the US GDP growth in Q3 2026 prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest US GDP growth in Q3 2026 odds?

The latest available prices are Above 0.5%: 99.0¢ on Kalshi, 94.0¢ on Polymarket US; Above 1.0%: 93.0¢ on Kalshi, 92.0¢ on Polymarket US; Above 1.5%: 86.0¢ on Kalshi, 88.0¢ on Polymarket US; Above 2.0%: 84.5¢ on Kalshi, 85.0¢ on Polymarket US. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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