Who will de facto lead Venezuela at the end of 2026?
Live prediction market odds for Who will de facto lead Venezuela at the end of 2026?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
Listed Updated Expected to settle by
Traders give Delcy Rodríguez about a 97.4% chance. Jorge Rodríguez follows at 2.1%, Nicolás Maduro follows at 2.0%, and Vladimir Padrino López follows at 1.3%. Compare prices from Kalshi and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 3.9 percentage points.
Kalshi
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Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf Delcy Rodríguez de facto holds the position of head of state of Venezuela at the end of 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
For the purposes of this Contract, "Delcy Rodríguez de facto holds head of state of Venezuela" means that, at the end of 2026, Delcy Rodríguez is the individual who primarily exercises the governing authority and core powers customarily attached to head of state of Venezuela, regardless of Delcy Rodríguez's formal title, constitutional designation, formal appointment, domestic legal status, foreign recognition, or international recognition. The Source Agency's determination of whether Delcy Rodríguez de facto holds head of state of Venezuela shall be based on objective indicators of governing authority over the functions attached to head of state of Venezuela, which may include, without limitation: Control over the executive ministries, administrative apparatus, bureaucracy, and state institutions associated with head of state of Venezuela Issuance of binding national directives, decrees, orders, or instructions that are observably obeyed and enforced within the relevant jurisdiction Control over the official seat of power, capital, headquarters, principal residence, or principal infrastructure associated with head of state of Venezuela Treatment by the domestic state institutions associated with head of state of Venezuela as the operative holder of head of state of Venezuela Treatment by foreign governments, multilateral institutions, and credentialed media as the operative holder of head of state of Venezuela The following alone will NOT qualify as de facto holding head of state of Venezuela: Holding the formal or constitutional title to head of state of Venezuela without exercising the core powers customarily attached to head of state of Venezuela Serving in an acting, interim, caretaker, provisional, or temporary capacity that is subordinate to and accountable to a principal who continues to exercise the core powers customarily attached to head of state of Venezuela Nomination, designation, election, appointment, or confirmation to head of state of Venezuela prior to the effective transfer of governing authority Status as successor, heir apparent, or designated replacement to head of state of Venezuela prior to assumption of governing authority Symbolic, ceremonial, or honorary status without exercise of the core powers customarily attached to head of state of Venezuela, except where head of state of Venezuela is itself a primarily ceremonial position and Delcy Rodríguez performs the ceremonial functions associated with head of state of Venezuela without operative displacement Foreign or international recognition as the holder of head of state of Venezuela without exercise of operative governing authority within the relevant jurisdiction Leadership from exile, in detention, or otherwise removed from the operating seat of head of state of Venezuela, where another individual is observably exercising the core powers customarily attached to head of state of Venezuela without subordination to Delcy Rodríguez Holding a different role with general political, religious, military, or institutional influence over head of state of Venezuela without personally exercising the core powers customarily attached to head of state of Venezuela If, at the end of 2026, the Source Agency does not identify any individual as exercising primary governing authority over the core powers customarily attached to head of state of Venezuela (including where head of state of Venezuela has been abolished, suspended, declared vacant, or where governing authority is genuinely fragmented among multiple individuals such that no individual primarily exercises the powers customarily attached to head of state of Venezuela), the Payout Criterion shall not be satisfied with respect to any listed person. If, at the end of 2026, more than one individual claims or is claimed to de facto hold head of state of Venezuela, the Source Agency shall determine the de facto holder by reference to which individual primarily exercises the indicators of governing authority described above; in any such determination, the higher-ranked Source Agencies shall prevail over lower-ranked Source Agencies. If multiple persons are determined to do so equally, all those persons' markets shall resolve to $1/n, rounded down, where n is the number of persons who do so and who have a strike listed.
Political instability, economic crises, and international sanctions significantly impact Venezuela's leadership dynamics. Additionally, internal power struggles and public sentiment play crucial roles in determining who holds authority.
Prediction markets allow participants to buy and sell shares based on their expectations of future events, such as political leadership outcomes. Prices reflect the collective beliefs about the likelihood of various scenarios occurring.
The end of 2026 marks a potential turning point for Venezuela, as it may coincide with key elections or shifts in political power. Observers are keenly watching how the situation evolves leading up to this date.
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.
The latest available prices are Delcy Rodríguez: 98.0¢ on Kalshi, 96.8¢ on Polymarket; Jorge Rodríguez: 4.0¢ on Kalshi, 0.2¢ on Polymarket; Nicolás Maduro: 4.0¢ on Kalshi, 0.1¢ on Polymarket; Vladimir Padrino López: 2.5¢ on Kalshi, 0.1¢ on Polymarket. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.
