Traders give Christopher Luxon about a 46.0% chance. Benjamin Netanyahu follows at 41.5%, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva follows at 14.5%, and Miguel Díaz-Canel follows at 14.5%. Compare prices from Kalshi.
Traders give Christopher Luxon about a 46.0% chance. Benjamin Netanyahu follows at 41.5%, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva follows at 14.5%, and Miguel Díaz-Canel follows at 14.5%. Compare prices from Kalshi.
Kalshi is tracking which leaders will leave office in 2026. Political stability and upcoming elections in various countries will heavily influence the odds as public sentiment and governance challenges evolve.
Christopher Luxon is the Prime Minister of New Zealand and leader of the National Party. Before entering politics, he was the CEO of Air New Zealand from 2012 to 2019. He has been the Member of Parliament for Botany since 2020 and became Prime Minister in November 2023.
About Benjamin Netanyahu
Benjamin Netanyahu is the current Prime Minister of Israel, serving his sixth term since December 2022. He previously held the position from 1996 to 1999 and from 2009 to 2021, making him Israel's longest-serving prime minister. His extensive experience and leadership in Israeli politics make him a central figure in discussions about political stability and potential changes in leadership.
About Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is the current President of Brazil, serving his third term since January 1, 2023. He previously served as President from 2003 to 2010, during which Brazil experienced significant economic growth and poverty reduction. Lula is a prominent figure in Brazilian politics, known for his leadership in the Workers' Party and his influence on national and international affairs.
About Miguel Díaz-Canel
Miguel Díaz-Canel is the current President of Cuba and First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba. He was re-elected on April 19, 2023, with 97.66% support from the National Assembly. Díaz-Canel has been a central figure in Cuban politics, overseeing significant economic challenges and international relations during his tenure.
About Friedrich Merz
Friedrich Merz is the Chancellor of Germany, having assumed office on May 6, 2025. He previously served as Leader of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) from January 2022 to May 2025. As Chancellor, Merz has been instrumental in implementing significant constitutional reforms and military rearmament initiatives.
About Pedro Sánchez
Pedro Sánchez is the current Prime Minister of Spain and Secretary-General of the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE). He has been in office since June 2018, leading the PSOE to its first national victory since 2008 in the April 2019 general election. Sánchez is recognized for his role in forming Spain's first national coalition government since the country's return to democracy.
About Rodrigo Paz Pereira
Rodrigo Paz Pereira is the current President of Bolivia, having assumed office on November 8, 2025. Before his presidency, he served as a senator for Tarija from 2020 to 2025 and as mayor of Tarija from 2015 to 2020. His extensive political experience and leadership roles in Tarija have established him as a significant figure in Bolivian politics.
About Delcy Rodriguez
Delcy Rodríguez is the acting president of Venezuela, having assumed the role on January 5, 2026, following the capture of Nicolás Maduro. She previously served as the 24th vice president from 2018 to 2026 and as Minister of Economy and Finance from 2020 to 2024. Rodríguez's extensive experience in Venezuela's executive branch and her leadership during a transitional period underscore her significant role in the country's political landscape.
About Mette Frederiksen
Mette Frederiksen is the Prime Minister of Denmark and leader of the Social Democrats. She became Denmark's youngest prime minister at 41 in 2019. Frederiksen has been a member of the Danish Parliament since 2001 and led the Social Democrats since 2015.
About Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Volodymyr Zelenskyy is the current President of Ukraine, serving since 2019. Before his presidency, he was a comedian and television producer, notably starring in the TV series 'Servant of the People.' His leadership during the ongoing conflict with Russia has been pivotal in mobilizing international support for Ukraine.
About Ramzan Kadyrov
Ramzan Kadyrov is the Head of the Chechen Republic, a position he has held since 2007. Before this, he served as Prime Minister of Chechnya from 2005 to 2007. He has established a political dynasty by appointing family members to key positions within the Chechen government.
About Mohammed bin Salman
Mohammed bin Salman is the Crown Prince and Prime Minister of Saudi Arabia. He served as Minister of Defense from 2015 to 2022. He has implemented significant economic and social reforms, including Vision 2030, aiming to diversify the economy beyond oil.
About Lee Jae Myung
Lee Jae Myung is the 14th President of South Korea, having assumed office on June 4, 2025. Prior to his presidency, he served as the leader of the Democratic Party of Korea from 2022 to 2025 and as governor of Gyeonggi Province from 2018 to 2021. His extensive political experience and leadership roles have established him as a significant figure in South Korean politics.
About Vladimir Putin
Vladimir Putin is the current President of Russia, having been inaugurated for his fifth term on May 7, 2024. He has served as Russia's president or prime minister since 1999, making him the longest-serving leader in Russian history. His extensive tenure and influence over Russian politics make him a central figure in discussions about political leadership and stability.
About Cyril Ramaphosa
Cyril Ramaphosa is the current President of South Africa and Chairperson of the African Union. He was elected President in 2018 and re-elected in 2024. As President, he has led efforts to address South Africa's electricity crisis and has been involved in international diplomatic initiatives.
About Ahmad al-Sharaa
Ahmad al-Sharaa is the current President of Syria, having assumed office on January 29, 2025. He led the offensive that ousted President Bashar al-Assad in December 2024. As president, he focuses on rebuilding state institutions and unifying the country.
About Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is the 12th President of Turkey, having been re-elected for a third term in June 2023. He served as Prime Minister from 2003 to 2014 and as Mayor of Istanbul from 1994 to 1998. Erdoğan's extensive political experience and leadership in Turkey's executive branch make him a central figure in discussions about political transitions.
About Jens-Frederik Nielsen
Jens-Frederik Nielsen is the Prime Minister of Greenland and leader of the Demokraatit party. He previously served as Minister of Industry and Mineral Resources from May 2020 to February 2021. He is the first member of Demokraatit to hold the office of prime minister.
About Félix Tshisekedi
Félix Tshisekedi is the current President of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, having been re-elected for a second term in January 2024. He previously served as the President from 2019 to 2024, marking the first peaceful transfer of power in the country's history. Tshisekedi's leadership is significant in discussions about political stability and governance in the DRC.
About Emmanuel Macron
Emmanuel Macron is the current President of France, serving his second term since 2022. He previously served as Minister of Economy, Industry, and Digital Affairs from 2014 to 2016. As President, he has been instrumental in shaping France's domestic and foreign policies, including economic reforms and international relations.
About Narendra Modi
Narendra Modi is the current Prime Minister of India, serving his third consecutive term since June 9, 2024. Before this, he was the Chief Minister of Gujarat from 2001 to 2014. As Prime Minister, he has been instrumental in shaping India's economic policies and international relations.
About Sanae Takaichi
Sanae Takaichi is the Prime Minister of Japan and President of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). She was first elected to the House of Representatives in 1993 and has held various ministerial positions, including Minister for Internal Affairs and Communications. Takaichi is recognized for her conservative policies and is a member of the ultranationalist group Nippon Kaigi.
About Denis Sassou Nguesso
Denis Sassou Nguesso is the current President of the Republic of the Congo, having been re-elected in March 2026 for a fifth term. He has led the country for over four decades, serving as president from 1979 to 1992 and again since 1997. His extensive tenure and leadership in the Republic of the Congo make him a significant figure in African politics.
About Giorgia Meloni
Giorgia Meloni is the current Prime Minister of Italy, leading the government since October 2022. She co-founded and has led the Brothers of Italy party since 2014, becoming Italy's first female prime minister. Her leadership has been marked by a focus on national sovereignty, traditional values, and a strong stance on immigration.
About Javier Milei
Javier Milei is the current President of Argentina, having assumed office on December 10, 2023. Prior to his presidency, he served as a national deputy representing Buenos Aires from 2021 to 2023 and led the La Libertad Avanza party. As president, Milei has implemented significant economic reforms, including deregulation measures and efforts to reduce Argentina's fiscal deficit.
About Daniel Noboa
Daniel Noboa Azín is the current President of Ecuador and founder of the National Democratic Action (ADN) movement. He was elected in 2023 and re-elected in 2025, focusing on security and economic growth. Noboa has a background in business and law, having studied at institutions like NYU and Harvard.
About Kim Jong Un
Kim Jong Un is the Supreme Leader of North Korea and Chairman of the State Affairs Commission. He succeeded his father, Kim Jong Il, in 2011 and has since accelerated North Korea's nuclear weapons program. His leadership is characterized by a focus on military development and maintaining the Kim family's dynastic rule.
About Irfaan Ali
Mohamed Irfaan Ali is the current President of Guyana, having been re-elected for a second term in September 2025. He previously served as Minister of Housing and Water from 2009 to 2015. As President, he has been instrumental in managing Guyana's economic growth, particularly in the oil sector.
Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases
Market Rulebook: Which leaders will leave office in 2026?
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
Kalshi
Primary Rule
If Ramzan Kadyrov has either officially announced their intention to leave as Head of the Chechen Republic or has actually left Head of the Chechen Republic before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Edge Cases
An "official announcement" means a statement by the person themselves, their authorized representative, or the official body governing the office that the person will be departing from the office. Such announcements must be reported by at least one Source Agency to be considered official. The announcement must not specify they are leaving in more than a year from the statement, in which case the market does not resolve to Yes.
"Leaving office" means the person no longer holds the office in any capacity, including but not limited to: resignation (effective), termination, removal, impeachment and removal, recall, or the expiration of their term without renewal. Temporary absences such as medical leave, suspension with possibility of return, or delegation of duties while retaining the office do NOT constitute leaving office. Death does NOT satisfy the Payout Criterion for this Contract. Forced departures (termination, impeachment and removal, etc.) satisfy the Payout Criterion even without a prior announcement.
What factors influence predictions about leaders leaving office in 2026?
Predictions are influenced by political stability, public approval ratings, and upcoming elections. Economic conditions and international relations also play a crucial role.
How often do odds change for this market?
Odds can change frequently based on news events, polling data, and political developments. Significant announcements or crises may lead to rapid shifts in predictions.
What role do prediction markets play in political forecasting?
Prediction markets aggregate collective insights and sentiments about political events, offering a real-time reflection of public expectations. They can serve as indicators of potential outcomes based on current information.
What does the Which leaders will leave office in 2026 prediction market track?
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.
What are the latest Which leaders will leave office in 2026 odds?
The latest available prices are Christopher Luxon: 46.0¢ on Kalshi; Benjamin Netanyahu: 41.5¢ on Kalshi; Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva: 14.5¢ on Kalshi; Miguel Díaz-Canel: 14.5¢ on Kalshi. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.
