Traders give Thom Tillis about a 11.5% chance. Raphael Warnock follows at 10.7%, Kirsten Gillibrand follows at 9.8%, and Rand Paul follows at 9.8%. Compare prices from Kalshi and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 3.5 percentage points.
Traders give Thom Tillis about a 11.5% chance. Raphael Warnock follows at 10.7%, Kirsten Gillibrand follows at 9.8%, and Rand Paul follows at 9.8%. Compare prices from Kalshi and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 3.5 percentage points.
Prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act. This legislation could impact various policy areas, making the voting decisions of Senators crucial for its potential passage and implementation.
Raphael Warnock is the current U.S. Senator from Georgia, serving since January 2021. Before his election, he was the senior pastor of Atlanta's Ebenezer Baptist Church, a position he has held since 2005. As a senator, he has championed legislation to cap insulin costs and protect voting rights.
About Kirsten Gillibrand
Kirsten Gillibrand is the junior U.S. Senator from New York, serving since 2009. She previously represented New York's 20th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives from 2007 to 2009. As a senior member of the Senate Armed Services Committee and ranking member of the Senate Aging Committee, she has a strong track record in defense and senior issues.
About Rand Paul
Rand Paul is the Chair of the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee. He has served as the junior U.S. Senator from Kentucky since 2011. His role as committee chair involves overseeing federal agencies and departments, making him a key figure in national security and governmental affairs.
About Josh Hawley
Josh Hawley is the senior U.S. Senator from Missouri, serving since 2019. He previously served as Missouri's Attorney General from 2017 to 2019. As a member of the Senate Judiciary Committee, he plays a key role in judicial confirmations and legal oversight.
About Mike Lee
Mike Lee is the senior United States Senator from Utah, serving since 2011. He is the current Chair of the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee. Lee has a longstanding record of advocating for constitutional principles and limited government.
About Catherine Cortez Masto
Catherine Cortez Masto is the senior U.S. Senator from Nevada, serving since 2017. She was Nevada's Attorney General from 2007 to 2015. As a former federal prosecutor and Attorney General, she has a strong background in law enforcement and public safety.
About Ruben Gallego
Ruben Gallego is the junior U.S. Senator from Arizona, serving since January 2025. He previously represented Arizona's 3rd Congressional District in the U.S. House of Representatives from 2015 to 2025. Gallego is a former Marine Corps infantryman who served in Iraq from 2005 to 2006.
About Andy Kim
Andy Kim is the junior United States senator from New Jersey, serving since December 2024. He previously represented New Jersey's 3rd congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives from 2019 to 2024. Kim's extensive experience includes roles at the U.S. Department of State, Department of Defense, and National Security Council, as well as serving as a civilian advisor in Afghanistan.
About Lisa Blunt Rochester
Lisa Blunt Rochester is the junior U.S. Senator from Delaware, serving since January 2025. She previously represented Delaware's at-large congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives from 2017 to 2025. As the first woman and first African American to represent Delaware in both chambers of Congress, she has a distinguished record in public service.
About Mark Warner
Mark Warner is the senior U.S. Senator from Virginia, serving since 2009. He was the 69th Governor of Virginia from 2002 to 2006. As Vice Chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee, he oversees U.S. intelligence agencies.
About Angela Alsobrooks
Angela Alsobrooks is the junior United States senator from Maryland, serving since January 3, 2025. She previously served as Prince George's County Executive from 2018 to 2024, becoming the first woman and first Black woman to hold that position. Alsobrooks has a strong track record in public service, having also served as the county's State's Attorney from 2011 to 2018, where she led efforts to reduce violent crime by 50%.
About Jerry Moran
Jerry Moran is the senior U.S. Senator from Kansas, serving since 2011. He previously represented Kansas's 1st congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives from 1997 to 2011. As Chairman of the Senate Committee on Veterans' Affairs, he advocates for veterans' healthcare and benefits.
Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases
Market Rulebook: Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
Kalshi
Primary Rule
If Mike Lee votes for a crypto market structure bill (as defined in KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE) in the Senate before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Edge Cases
The vote must be the first final vote on the bill, not a motion to proceed or motion to invoke cloture, unless otherwise specified. This must be a vote in the relevant full chamber, not a Committee vote, though not every member of the chamber needs to have participated in the vote. Once the vote has been closed and the correct result of the vote has been announced, a request by the member to add, remove, or alter a vote shall not be considered for purposes of resolving this market, regardless of any change to the official vote tally reported by the website Congress.gov or any other Congressional source.
The Clarity Act is proposed legislation aimed at addressing specific regulatory issues. Its provisions could have significant implications for various sectors, including finance and technology.
Why do Senators' votes matter for the Clarity Act?
Senators' votes are critical as they determine whether the Clarity Act will pass through the legislative process. The outcome could shape future policies and regulations.
What factors influence Senators' voting decisions on the Clarity Act?
Factors include party alignment, constituent interests, and the potential economic impact of the legislation. Lobbying efforts and public opinion may also play a significant role.
What does the Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act prediction market track?
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.
What are the latest Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act odds?
The latest available prices are Thom Tillis: 11.5¢ on Polymarket; Raphael Warnock: 9.0¢ on Kalshi, 12.3¢ on Polymarket; Kirsten Gillibrand: 10.0¢ on Kalshi, 9.5¢ on Polymarket; Rand Paul: 10.0¢ on Kalshi, 9.5¢ on Polymarket. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.
