Which Supreme Court justices will resign during Trump's term?
Live prediction market odds for Which Supreme Court justices will resign during Trump's term?. Compare prices across Kalshi.
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Compare all 9 outcomes across 1 venueTraders give Samuel Alito about a 47.0% chance. John Roberts follows at 30.0%, Clarence Thomas follows at 25.5%, and Sonia Sotomayor follows at 7.4%. Compare prices from Kalshi.
KalshiKalshiOfficial settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf Sonia Sotomayor resigns or announces their intent to resign from the Supreme Court before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Death is not resignation and will not resolve a market to Yes.
Health issues, age, and personal circumstances often play a role in a justice's decision to resign. Additionally, political considerations and the current administration's stance can impact their timing.
Resignations can lead to shifts in the Court's ideological balance, potentially altering the outcomes of key rulings. New justices may bring different judicial philosophies that influence future legal interpretations.
Supreme Court justices have historically resigned for various reasons, including retirement and health concerns. Such resignations often coincide with changes in presidential administrations, allowing new appointments that can reshape the Court.
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.
The latest available prices are Samuel Alito: 47.0¢ on Kalshi; John Roberts: 30.0¢ on Kalshi; Clarence Thomas: 25.5¢ on Kalshi; Sonia Sotomayor: 7.4¢ on Kalshi. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.
