Who will be Israeli finance minister after the election?
Live prediction market odds for Who will be Israeli finance minister after the election?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
Listed Updated
Traders give Avigdor Lieberman about a 19.9% chance. Naftali Bennett follows at 14.3%, Keren Terner Eyal follows at 6.0%, and Yair Lapid follows at 3.5%. Compare prices from Kalshi and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 5.3 percentage points.
Kalshi
PolymarketKalshiPolymarketBest price among US-regulated venues.
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Yaron Zelekha formally takes office as Minister of Finance as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election before Oct 27, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Only the first person to formally take office as Minister of Finance in the government formed after the 2026 Israeli legislative election, when it takes office or within 30 days after its first ministers are appointed, counts. An incumbent reappointed to the post counts; later reshuffles, rotations and appointments do not. Nominations, coalition agreements and announcements do not count, nor do acting, caretaker or interim service or a head of government holding the portfolio only by default while it is unassigned. If no government is formed after the election before Oct 27, 2027, including because a new election is called first, every market resolves No.
PolymarketThis market will resolve to the individual who first assumes office as Israeli Minister of Finance in the first government formed following the 2026 Knesset elections. To count for resolution, the individual’s ministership must be approved by the Knesset in a vote of confidence in that government or a subsequent vote approving the individual’s appointment to that government. Any interim or caretaker Minister of Finance will not count toward the resolution of this market. Once a qualifying individual assumes office, subsequent replacements will not affect resolution. The individual must be appointed as “Minister of Finance” or be appointed to the ministerial position confirmed to be its successor position, retaining its primary responsibilities, by a consensus of credible reporting. Positions that assume only secondary responsibilities will not qualify as a successor. If the primary portfolio responsibilities previously assigned to Minister of Finance are attributable to multiple successor positions, this market will resolve to the individual appointed to one of the successor positions whose full name comes first in alphabetical order. If no such Minister of Finance assumes office by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Minister by Feb 28”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The appointment is influenced by coalition negotiations among political parties after the election. The party that wins the most seats typically has the first opportunity to appoint ministers.
Odds in prediction markets reflect the collective beliefs of traders about the likelihood of various candidates being appointed. Changes in polling data and political alliances can significantly impact these odds.
Trading for this market is scheduled to close on March 1, 2027. However, the actual appointment may occur after this date, depending on the election outcome and coalition talks.
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.
The latest available prices are Avigdor Lieberman: 18.5¢ on Kalshi, 21.2¢ on Polymarket; Naftali Bennett: 13.5¢ on Kalshi, 15.0¢ on Polymarket; Keren Terner Eyal: 6.0¢ on Kalshi; Yair Lapid: 6.0¢ on Kalshi, 0.9¢ on Polymarket. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.
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