Who will be Israeli foreign minister after the election?
Live prediction market odds for Who will be Israeli foreign minister after the election?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
Listed Updated
Traders give Yair Lapid about a 36.5% chance. Avigdor Lieberman follows at 3.3%, Yossi Cohen follows at 3.3%, and Benjamin Netanyahu follows at 5.9%. Compare prices from Kalshi and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 5.3 percentage points.
Kalshi
PolymarketKalshiPolymarketBest price among US-regulated venues.
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Yair Lapid formally takes office as Minister of Foreign Affairs as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election before Oct 27, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Only the first person to formally take office as Minister of Foreign Affairs in the government formed after the 2026 Israeli legislative election, when it takes office or within 30 days after its first ministers are appointed, counts. An incumbent reappointed to the post counts; later reshuffles, rotations and appointments do not. Nominations, coalition agreements and announcements do not count, nor do acting, caretaker or interim service or a head of government holding the portfolio only by default while it is unassigned. If no government is formed after the election before Oct 27, 2027, including because a new election is called first, every market resolves No.
PolymarketThis market will resolve to the individual who first assumes office as Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs in the first government formed following the 2026 Knesset elections. To count for resolution, the individual’s ministership must be approved by the Knesset in a vote of confidence in that government or a subsequent vote approving the individual’s appointment to that government. Any interim or caretaker Minister of Foreign Affairs will not count toward the resolution of this market. Once a qualifying individual assumes office, subsequent replacements will not affect resolution. The individual must be appointed as “Minister of Foreign Affairs” or be appointed to the ministerial position confirmed to be its successor position, retaining its primary responsibilities, by a consensus of credible reporting. Positions that assume only secondary responsibilities will not qualify as a successor. If the primary portfolio responsibilities previously assigned to Minister of Foreign Affairs are attributable to multiple successor positions, this market will resolve to the individual appointed to one of the successor positions whose full name comes first in alphabetical order. If no such Minister of Foreign Affairs assumes office by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Minister by Feb 28”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The market resolves when the official appointment of the Israeli foreign minister is announced after the election results. This appointment is made by the Prime Minister.
Odds fluctuate based on polling data, candidate endorsements, and political developments leading up to the election. Significant events or announcements can lead to rapid changes in market sentiment.
Candidates must be eligible for the position of foreign minister as defined by Israeli law, which typically includes being a member of the Knesset. The market does not track individual candidate names directly.
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.
The latest available prices are Yair Lapid: 36.5¢ on Kalshi, 36.5¢ on Polymarket; Avigdor Lieberman: 6.0¢ on Kalshi, 0.7¢ on Polymarket; Yossi Cohen: 6.0¢ on Kalshi, 0.7¢ on Polymarket; Benjamin Netanyahu: 7.0¢ on Kalshi, 4.8¢ on Polymarket. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.
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