Traders give Pat McFadden about a 16.9% chance. John Healey follows at 12.0%, Miatta Fahnbulleh follows at 10.3%, and Jonathan Reynolds follows at 3.8%. Compare prices from Kalshi and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 27.9 percentage points.
Pat McFadden is the Secretary of State for Work and Pensions in the UK government. He has represented Wolverhampton South East as a Member of Parliament since 2005. McFadden has held various ministerial positions, including Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster and Minister for Intergovernmental Relations.
About John Healey
John Healey is the Chancellor of the Exchequer, appointed on 20 July 2026. He served as Secretary of State for Defence from 5 July 2024 to 11 June 2026. As Chancellor, he oversees economic and fiscal policy, including presenting the annual Budget.
About Miatta Fahnbulleh
Miatta Fahnbulleh is the Secretary of State for Energy Security and Net Zero in the UK government. She was previously the Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for Devolution, Faith and Communities from September 2025 to May 2026. Fahnbulleh has a background in economic development and has held leadership roles in policy research organizations.
About Jonathan Reynolds
Jonathan Reynolds is the Secretary of State for Business, Innovation, Science and Trade in the UK government. He has been the Member of Parliament for Stalybridge and Hyde since 2010. As a senior cabinet minister, his decisions significantly influence the UK's business and trade policies.
About Lucy Powell
Lucy Powell is the Secretary of State for Education and Deputy Leader of the Labour Party. She has been the Member of Parliament for Manchester Central since 2012. Powell has held various shadow cabinet roles, including Shadow Secretary of State for Digital, Culture, Media and Sport, and Shadow Secretary of State for Housing.
About Lisa Nandy
Lisa Nandy is the Secretary of State for Digital, Culture, Media and Sport in the United Kingdom. She has represented Wigan as a Member of Parliament since 2010. Nandy has held various positions in the UK government, including Secretary of State for Culture, Media and Sport from 2024 to 2026.
About Alex Norris
Alex Norris is the current Secretary of State for Justice and Lord Chancellor in Prime Minister Andy Burnham's cabinet. Before this, he served as Minister of State for Border Security and Asylum and Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for Building Safety, Fire and Local Growth. His extensive experience in various governmental roles underscores his significant influence within the Burnham Cabinet.
About Alan Campbell
Sir Alan Campbell is the current Leader of the House of Commons and Lord President of the Council. He has represented Tynemouth as a Member of Parliament since 2001. As Leader of the House, he facilitates parliamentary proceedings and represents the government in the Commons.
About Angela Rayner
Angela Rayner is the Secretary of State for Housing, Communities and Local Government, appointed on 20 July 2026. She previously served in the same role from July 2024 to September 2025 and was Deputy Prime Minister during that period. Rayner has been the Member of Parliament for Ashton-under-Lyne since 2015.
About Yvette Cooper
Yvette Cooper is the Secretary of State for Health and Social Care, appointed on 20 July 2026. She previously served as Secretary of State for Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Affairs from 5 September 2025 to 20 July 2026. Cooper has been the Member of Parliament for Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley since 1997, holding various ministerial positions under Tony Blair and Gordon Brown.
About Angela Smith
Angela Smith, Baroness Smith of Basildon, is the Leader of the House of Lords and Lord Keeper of the Privy Seal in the Burnham Cabinet. She served as Leader of the Opposition in the Lords from 2015 to 2024. As a life peer and experienced parliamentarian, she plays a pivotal role in facilitating legislative processes in the House of Lords.
About Bridget Phillipson
Bridget Phillipson is the current Minister for Women and Equalities in the UK government. She previously served as Secretary of State for Education from 2024 to 2026. As Chair of the Labour Party since July 2026, she plays a pivotal role in shaping the party's direction and policies.
About Angela Eagle
Dame Angela Eagle is the Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs in the Burnham Cabinet. She has been the Member of Parliament for Wallasey since 1992. Eagle has held various ministerial positions, including Minister of State for Security and Minister of State for Food Security and Rural Affairs.
About Shabana Mahmood
Shabana Mahmood is the current Secretary of State for the Home Department in the United Kingdom. She previously served as Lord Chancellor and Secretary of State for Justice from July 2024 to September 2025. Mahmood has been the Member of Parliament for Birmingham Ladywood since 2010 and is a member of the Labour Party.
About Stephen Kinnock
Stephen Kinnock is the Secretary of State for Wales, appointed on 20 July 2026. He previously served as Minister of State at the Department of Health and Social Care from 8 July 2024 to 20 July 2026. As Secretary of State for Wales, he is responsible for the overall strategic direction of the UK Government in Wales.
About Louise Haigh
Louise Haigh is the First Secretary of State, Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster, and Minister for the Cabinet Office. She served as Secretary of State for Transport from July to November 2024. Haigh has been the Member of Parliament for Sheffield Heeley since 2015.
About Douglas Alexander
Douglas Alexander is the Secretary of State for Scotland, appointed on 5 September 2025. He previously served as Secretary of State for International Development from 2007 to 2010. His extensive experience in UK government positions him as a key figure in the Burnham Cabinet.
About Wes Streeting
Wes Streeting is the Secretary of State for Defence in the United Kingdom. He previously served as Secretary of State for Health and Social Care from July 2024 to May 2026. Streeting has been the Member of Parliament for Ilford North since 2015.
About Chris Bryant
Chris Bryant is the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland in Andy Burnham's cabinet. He has represented Rhondda in Parliament since 2001 and chaired the Standards Committee from 2020 to 2023. His extensive parliamentary experience and commitment to integrity make him a key figure in the current government.
About Heidi Alexander
Heidi Alexander is the Secretary of State for Transport in the United Kingdom, serving since November 2024. She previously held the position of Deputy Mayor of London for Transport from 2018 to 2021. Alexander's extensive experience in transportation policy and urban planning makes her a key figure in discussions about the Burnham Cabinet's future.
About Anneliese Midgley
Anneliese Midgley is the current Member of Parliament for Knowsley and serves as the Parliamentary Secretary to the Treasury (Chief Whip). She was appointed to this role in July 2026 by Prime Minister Andy Burnham. Midgley has a background in trade unionism and has held senior positions within the Labour Party, including Political Director of Unite the Union and senior adviser to Keir Starmer.
Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases
Market Rulebook: Who will be the next to leave the Burnham Cabinet?
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
Kalshi
Primary Rule
If Yvette Cooper is the next to leave the Burnham Cabinet before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Edge Cases
A member leaves the Cabinet upon the qualifying announcement of their resignation, dismissal, removal, non-reappointment, or other formal cessation of Cabinet membership. A change of portfolio or position within the Cabinet alone does not count.
If two or more members leave on the same calendar date and the Source Agencies do not establish a clear chronological order, the tied member markets settle according to the Contract's split-settlement provisions. If no eligible member leaves during the specified period, all member markets resolve to No.
A temporary absence or leave where the member is expected to resume their Cabinet position does not count. Speculative or unconfirmed reports of a departure do not count. If the Prime Minister leaves office or the Cabinet is otherwise dissolved or wholly reconstituted before an individual member satisfies the Payout Criterion, all listed individual-member markets resolve to No.
What criteria determine the resolution of this market?
The market resolves when an official announcement is made regarding a resignation or dismissal from the Burnham Cabinet. Only confirmed departures will affect the outcome.
How do political developments impact the odds in this market?
Odds can fluctuate based on news reports, speculation, or statements from Cabinet members that suggest potential departures. Increased media attention on specific individuals may also influence market sentiment.
Are there any specific events that could trigger a resignation?
Resignations may be triggered by scandals, policy disagreements, or shifts in political support. Any significant event that affects a Cabinet member's standing could lead to an announcement.
Who will be the next to leave the Burnham Cabinet: what does this prediction market track?
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.
Who will be the next to leave the Burnham Cabinet: what are the current odds?
The latest available prices are Pat McFadden: 3.0¢ on Kalshi, 30.9¢ on Polymarket; John Healey: 13.5¢ on Kalshi, 10.5¢ on Polymarket; Miatta Fahnbulleh: 6.5¢ on Kalshi, 14.0¢ on Polymarket; Jonathan Reynolds: 3.0¢ on Kalshi, 4.7¢ on Polymarket. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.
Kalshi
Polymarket
