Who will win the 2026 Quebec National Assembly election?
Live prediction market odds for Who will win the 2026 Quebec National Assembly election?. Compare prices across .
Archived, venue decision pending Listed Updated
This event is archived while we await a venue decision. The chart below shows historical odds.
Prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the 2026 Quebec National Assembly election.
Prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the 2026 Quebec National Assembly election. The outcome will influence provincial policies and party dynamics, making it a critical event in Quebec's political landscape.
Odds for questions with unconfirmed results.
| Question | Result |
|---|---|
PQ | Yes |
Other | No result |
Party A | No result |
Party B | No result |
Party C | No result |
Party D | No result |
Party E | No result |
Party F | No result |
Party G | No result |
Party H | No result |
Party I | No result |
Party J | No result |
Party K | No result |
Party L | No result |
Party M | No result |
Party N | No result |
Party O | No result |
Party P | No result |
Party Q | No result |
Party R | No result |
Party S | No result |
Party T | No result |
Party U | No result |
Party V | No result |
Party W | No result |
Party X | No result |
Party Y | No result |
Party Z | No result |
CAQ | No |
PCQ | No |
PLQ | No |
PVQ | No |
QS | No |
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf the PLQ wins the 2026 Quebec National Assembly election, then the market resolves to Yes.
For parliamentary elections, the party or coalition with the most seats wins. If two parties tie in seats: the one entering government will resolve to Yes and all others to No. If both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to Yes and all others to No. For coalitions/alliances, only those formally registered with electoral authorities before the nomination deadline count, not post-election governing arrangements. Overhang seats, leveling seats, and appointed seats count only if specified. For referenda/plebiscites, the specified option achieves the required threshold per applicable law (simple majority, supermajority, dual majority, turnout requirements). If multiple thresholds exist (e.g., majority of votes AND majority of states), all must be met. For presidential or direct elections, the candidate who wins according to the electoral system (electoral college, popular vote, or runoff as applicable) and either (i) is inaugurated/sworn in/takes office, or (ii) the scheduled inauguration date passes without a different candidate taking office is the winner. The market resolves based on the official certification or declaration by the relevant electoral authority. Contested results are resolved based on the final certified outcome by the appropriate electoral authority or highest court with jurisdiction. In cases of competing claims (two presidents, disputed succession), the individual recognized by the hierarchical majority of Source Agencies prevails. The market remains open until the rescheduled election or two years from the original date, whichever comes first. Repeated postponements count towards the 2-year deadline. If results are annulled by a court/authority AFTER announcement but BEFORE the winner takes office, the Contract remains open until re-run election or expiration.
The election is set for October 5, 2026. This date is significant as it will determine the composition of the National Assembly for the following term.
Polling data, party platforms, and candidate popularity will play crucial roles in shaping the odds. Additionally, current events and public sentiment leading up to the election may also impact predictions.
This election will determine the governing party in Quebec, affecting local policies on key issues such as healthcare, education, and climate change. The results could also influence national politics and interprovincial relations.
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Venue prices are not currently available on this page. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result. This event is archived; prices shown are historical.
No historical prices are available on this page. The last available price is not necessarily the final settlement price.
