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Live prediction market odds for Who will win the 2026 Quebec National Assembly election?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.

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Who will win the 2026 Quebec National Assembly election?

2026-10-05

Best price · tap to trade

PQ95¢1.05xKalshiPLQ7¢14.29xKalshiCAQ3¢33.33xKalshi
Compare all 6 outcomes across 2 venues

About This Market

Traders give PQ about a 92.3% chance. PLQ follows at 3.1%, CAQ follows at 1.6%, and PCQ follows at 0.3%. Compare prices from Kalshi and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 2.5 percentage points.

Traders give PQ about a 92.3% chance. PLQ follows at 3.1%, CAQ follows at 1.6%, and PCQ follows at 0.3%. Compare prices from Kalshi and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 2.5 percentage points.

Prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the 2026 Quebec National Assembly election. The outcome will influence provincial policies and party dynamics, making it a critical event in Quebec's political landscape.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

2 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
P
PQ
92%
Kalshi95¢
Polymarket94¢
Kalshi1.05x95¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
91.0%91¢95¢5¢9¢
PolymarketPolymarket
93.5%93¢94¢6¢7¢
P
PLQ
3%
Kalshi7¢
Polymarket3¢
Kalshi14.29x7¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
3.8%1¢7¢93¢99¢
PolymarketPolymarket
2.5%2¢3¢97¢98¢
C
CAQ
2%
Kalshi3¢
Polymarket1¢
Kalshi33.33x3¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
2.0%1¢3¢97¢99¢
PolymarketPolymarket
1.1%1¢1¢99¢99¢
P
PCQ
0%
Kalshi1¢
Polymarket1¢
Kalshi100.00x1¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
0.1%0¢1¢99¢100¢
PolymarketPolymarket
0.5%0¢1¢99¢100¢
P
PVQ
—
—
Polymarket1000.00x0¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshiPolymarketPolymarket

Best price among US-regulated venues.

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Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread2.5%
Platforms2
Candidates6
Leader

PQ

92.3% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: Who will win the 2026 Quebec National Assembly election?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If the PLQ wins the 2026 Quebec National Assembly election, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

For parliamentary elections, the party or coalition with the most seats wins. If two parties tie in seats: the one entering government will resolve to Yes and all others to No. If both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to Yes and all others to No. For coalitions/alliances, only those formally registered with electoral authorities before the nomination deadline count, not post-election governing arrangements. Overhang seats, leveling seats, and appointed seats count only if specified. For referenda/plebiscites, the specified option achieves the required threshold per applicable law (simple majority, supermajority, dual majority, turnout requirements). If multiple thresholds exist (e.g., majority of votes AND majority of states), all must be met. For presidential or direct elections, the candidate who wins according to the electoral system (electoral college, popular vote, or runoff as applicable) and either (i) is inaugurated/sworn in/takes office, or (ii) the scheduled inauguration date passes without a different candidate taking office is the winner. The market resolves based on the official certification or declaration by the relevant electoral authority. Contested results are resolved based on the final certified outcome by the appropriate electoral authority or highest court with jurisdiction. In cases of competing claims (two presidents, disputed succession), the individual recognized by the hierarchical majority of Source Agencies prevails. The market remains open until the rescheduled election or two years from the original date, whichever comes first. Repeated postponements count towards the 2-year deadline. If results are annulled by a court/authority AFTER announcement but BEFORE the winner takes office, the Contract remains open until re-run election or expiration.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules

Frequently Asked Questions

When is the 2026 Quebec National Assembly election scheduled?

The election is set for October 5, 2026. This date is significant as it will determine the composition of the National Assembly for the following term.

What factors could influence the odds in this election?

Polling data, party platforms, and candidate popularity will play crucial roles in shaping the odds. Additionally, current events and public sentiment leading up to the election may also impact predictions.

Why is the 2026 Quebec National Assembly election important?

This election will determine the governing party in Quebec, affecting local policies on key issues such as healthcare, education, and climate change. The results could also influence national politics and interprovincial relations.

Who will win the 2026 Quebec National Assembly election: what does this prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

Who will win the 2026 Quebec National Assembly election: what are the current odds?

The latest available prices are PQ: 91.0¢ on Kalshi, 93.5¢ on Polymarket; PLQ: 3.8¢ on Kalshi, 2.5¢ on Polymarket; CAQ: 2.0¢ on Kalshi, 1.1¢ on Polymarket; PCQ: 0.1¢ on Kalshi, 0.5¢ on Polymarket. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Prediction HuntPrediction.com coverage

PQ Leads Quebec Polls at 27%, Yet Markets Price a 92% WinVote-splitting among CAQ, PLQ, and PCQ converts PQ's narrow plurality into a near-certain seat majority under Quebec's first-past-the-post rules.Sep 24, 2026PQ Hits 92% in Markets Despite a Four-Way Race in Quebec PollsPQ leads Quebec polls at 27% with CAQ and PLQ at 23% each. Markets price a PQ win at 92%, up 9 points in three days.Sep 22, 2026CAQ Drops to 14% in 2026 Quebec Race as Francophone Gap HoldsMarkets cut CAQ from 23% to 14% in three days. Fréchette ties Plamondon in best-premier polls, but PQ leads by 9 points among francophone voters.Sep 15, 2026CAQ Win Probability Falls 12 Points as Bettors Reject Fréchette BouncePrediction markets cut CAQ from 35% to 23% in three days. The party trails PQ by nine points among francophone voters, the bloc that decides Quebec elections.Sep 13, 2026