Who will win the 2028 Republican presidential primary in New Hampshire?
Live prediction market odds for Who will win the 2028 Republican presidential primary in New Hampshire?. Compare prices across Kalshi and PredictIt.
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Traders give J.D. Vance about a 33.0% chance. Marco Rubio follows at 22.0% and Ron DeSantis follows at 8.0%. Compare prices from Kalshi and PredictIt. The largest cross-platform price difference is 8.0 percentage points.
Kalshi
PredictItKalshiPredictItBest price among US-regulated venues.
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf J.D. Vance wins the 2028 New Hampshire Republican presidential nominating contest, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. This market resolves on the statewide primary or caucus that allocates the most Republican national convention delegates from New Hampshire (the earlier one if two allocate the same number). The winner is the candidate with the most votes in its final round of counting, and only a projection of that candidate counts toward accelerated determination. "Uncommitted" and similar ballot options are not candidates. If that contest is not held before Nov 7, 2028, or reports no statewide vote count, every market resolves to No.
The outcome is determined by the candidate who receives the highest number of votes in the New Hampshire Republican primary. This vote count is finalized on the day of the primary.
Polling data influences the odds as candidates gain or lose support leading up to the primary. Changes in polling can lead to rapid shifts in market prices.
Trading for this market closes on November 7, 2028. This deadline is set to ensure all bets are placed before the primary results are finalized.
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, PredictIt in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.
The latest available prices are J.D. Vance: 37.0¢ on Kalshi, 29.0¢ on PredictIt; Marco Rubio: 19.0¢ on Kalshi, 25.0¢ on PredictIt; Ron DeSantis: 11.5¢ on Kalshi, 4.5¢ on PredictIt. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.
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