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Live prediction market odds for Who will win the next Israeli legislative election?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.

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Kalshi / Polymarket

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Who will win the next Israeli legislative election?

2026-10-27

Best price · tap to trade

Likud48¢2.08xKalshiYashar55¢1.82xKalshiTogether7¢14.29xKalshi
Compare all 9 outcomes across 2 venues

About This Market

Traders give Likud about a 50.5% chance. Yashar follows at 47.8%, Together follows at 3.8%, and Bennett 2026 follows at 1.0%. Compare prices from Kalshi and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 6.5 percentage points.

Traders give Likud about a 50.5% chance. Yashar follows at 47.8%, Together follows at 3.8%, and Bennett 2026 follows at 1.0%. Compare prices from Kalshi and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 6.5 percentage points.

Prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the outcome of the next Israeli legislative election scheduled for October 2026. This election will determine the composition of the Knesset and could significantly influence Israel's domestic and foreign policies amid ongoing geopolitical tensions.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

2 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
L
LikudARB
51%
Kalshi48¢
Polymarket56¢
Kalshi2.08x48¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
48.0%46¢48¢52¢54¢
PolymarketPolymarket
53.0%53¢56¢44¢47¢
Y
Yashar
48%
Kalshi55¢
Polymarket47¢
Kalshi1.82x55¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
50.0%41¢55¢45¢59¢
PolymarketPolymarket
45.5%44¢47¢53¢56¢
T
Together
4%
Kalshi7¢
Polymarket0.8¢
Kalshi14.29x7¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
7.0%2¢7¢93¢98¢
PolymarketPolymarket
0.5%0.4¢0.8¢99.2¢99.6¢
B2
Bennett 2026
single venue1%
Kalshi3¢
—
Kalshi30.30x3¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
1.0%0.3¢3¢97¢99.7¢
NU
National Unity
single venue1%
Kalshi3¢
—
Kalshi35.71x3¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
1.0%0.1¢3¢97¢99.9¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarketPolymarket

Best price among US-regulated venues.

Candidate Spotlight

About Bennett 2026

Naftali Bennett is the leader of the Israeli political party Bennett 2026. He served as Israel's prime minister from June 2021 to June 2022. Bennett has a history of leading right-wing political parties and has been a member of the Knesset since 2013.

Smart Trade Router

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Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread6.5%
Platforms2
Candidates9
Leader

Likud

50.5% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: Who will win the next Israeli legislative election?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If the winner of || Election || in || Year || is || Candidate/Option ||, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

The market resolves based on the official certification or declaration by the relevant electoral authority. For a parliamentary or legislative election, the winner is the party or formal pre-election coalition that wins the most seats in the specified chamber, even if they do not form the government. If there is a tie for the most seats, the winner is the party that enters government; if that doesn't resolve the tie, the winner is the party with the higher share of the vote. If an election is postponed, the contract remains open until the new date, for a maximum of two years. Contested results are resolved based on the final certified outcome by the appropriate electoral authority or highest court with jurisdiction.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors could influence the outcome of the Israeli legislative election?

Key factors include party alliances, voter turnout, and public opinion on current government policies. Additionally, regional security issues and economic conditions may sway voter preferences.

When is the next Israeli legislative election scheduled?

The next Israeli legislative election is set for October 27, 2026. This date is crucial as it will shape the political landscape for the following years.

How do prediction markets work in relation to elections?

Prediction markets allow participants to buy and sell shares based on their expectations of election outcomes. Prices reflect the collective wisdom and sentiment of traders regarding which candidates or parties are likely to win.

Who will win the next Israeli legislative election: what does this prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

Who will win the next Israeli legislative election: what are the current odds?

The latest available prices are Likud: 48.0¢ on Kalshi, 53.0¢ on Polymarket; Yashar: 50.0¢ on Kalshi, 45.5¢ on Polymarket; Together: 7.0¢ on Kalshi, 0.5¢ on Polymarket; Bennett 2026: 1.0¢ on Kalshi. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Likud Hits 50% on Prediction Markets as Israel Polls Stay TiedPrediction markets price Likud at 50% to win October 27, up from 39% in 72 hours. The latest Kan News poll has both blocs tied at 52 seats each.Oct 4, 2026Yashar Win Probability Falls 11 Points as Israeli Blocs Tie at 52A 52-52 bloc deadlock erases Yashar's party-level polling lead. Eisenkot now sits at 48% on prediction markets, down from 60% three days ago.Oct 1, 2026Likud Jumps 8 Points to 37% as Israeli Opposition FracturesLikud climbed from 29% to 37% in three days while Eisenkot's Yashar holds 62%. Opposition infighting among Golan, Bennett, and Lieberman is driving the repricing.Sep 24, 2026Likud Falls to 31% as Bennett-Lapid Merger Reshapes Israeli ElectionPolls show Yashar trading the lead with Likud, while the merged Bennett-Lapid bloc closes the coordination gap that cost the opposition five consecutive elections.Sep 18, 2026