About This Market
Traders give Before Jul 1, 2027 about a 4.5% chance. Before Jan 1, 2027 follows at 1.9%. Compare prices from Kalshi.
Will Donald Trump visit Iran?
Will Donald Trump visit Iran?
Live prediction market odds for Will Donald Trump visit Iran?. Compare prices across Kalshi.
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Compare all 3 outcomes across 1 venueTraders give Before Jul 1, 2027 about a 4.5% chance. Before Jan 1, 2027 follows at 1.9%. Compare prices from Kalshi.
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf Donald Trump has physically travelled to and been present within the geographic boundaries of Iran before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Physical presence within the geographic boundaries is required - flying over without landing, airport layovers where the person remains in the airplane or airport, virtual appearances, presence in international waters, or presence solely within embassy/consulate grounds do NOT count as visits. For cities, official municipal boundaries apply. For states/provinces, official boundaries apply. For countries, internationally recognized borders apply. International airports are considered within their host jurisdiction. Evidence must be reported by at least one Source Agency and may include official announcements, news reports with specific location details, verified photographs/videos at identifiable locations, flight records showing arrival, completed official schedules, or social media posts from official accounts. Visits that began before market issuance do not count. For multiple locations with OR logic, visiting any single location satisfies the criterion. For AND logic, all locations must be visited.
Factors may include diplomatic negotiations, regional security concerns, and domestic political pressures. Additionally, international relations and public opinion will play a role in shaping this decision.
A visit could signify a shift towards engagement with Iran, potentially altering the U.S. stance on sanctions and nuclear negotiations. It may also affect alliances with other Middle Eastern countries.
U.S.-Iran relations have been tense since the 1979 Iranian Revolution, characterized by mutual distrust and conflict. Key events include the hostage crisis and ongoing disputes over nuclear capabilities.
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.
The latest available prices are Before Jul 1, 2027: 4.5¢ on Kalshi; Before Jan 1, 2027: 1.9¢ on Kalshi. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.