Live prediction market odds for Will marijuana be rescheduled?. Compare prices across Kalshi.
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Traders give Before Jan 20, 2029 about a 89.0% chance. Before 2028 follows at 75.5% and Before 2027 follows at 19.0%. Compare prices from Kalshi.
KalshiKalshiBefore Jan 20, 2029
89.0% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf marijuana is rescheduled from Schedule I to a lower drug schedule under the Controlled Substances Act before January 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
If the DEA were to reschedule only certain cannabis derivatives or specific cannabinoids (e.g., move THC or a particular cannabis-derived pharmaceutical to a different schedule) without reclassifying marijuana/cannabis as a whole, that would not qualify as rescheduling marijuana for this contract. Ending the schedule altogether would resolve the market to Yes. Clarification (12/12/25): The Payout Criterion requires that marijuana is legally removed from Schedule I. The mere announcement or publication of a Final Rule in the Federal Register does not satisfy the Payout Criterion if the rule has not taken legal effect. The market resolves based on the actual status of the Schedules under the Controlled Substances Act.
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.
The latest available prices are Before Jan 20, 2029: 89.0¢ on Kalshi; Before 2028: 75.5¢ on Kalshi; Before 2027: 19.0¢ on Kalshi. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.
Venues have different traders, liquidity and fees, so their prices can differ. A cross-platform comparison needs available prices for the same outcome on at least two venues.
For example, Before Jan 20, 2029 at 89.0¢ implies about a 89.0% chance. For a standard $1 contract, a share pays $1 if its outcome settles as correct and $0 if it settles as incorrect. A winning share bought at 40¢ earns 60¢ before fees. Check each venue’s settlement rules, fees and eligibility before trading.
