Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement?
Live prediction market odds for Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement?. Compare prices across Kalshi.
Listed Updated Expected to settle by
Traders give Before Jan 1, 2028 about a 21.5% chance. Before Oct 1, 2027 follows at 16.5%, Before Jul 1, 2027 follows at 15.5%, and Before Apr 1, 2027 follows at 11.5%. Compare prices from Kalshi.
KalshiKalshiOfficial settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf Samuel Alito retires as Supreme Court justice before Jul 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market resolves based on when the departure is publicly announced or officially communicated, regardless of the effective date. If the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position. If the person vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role. If the role otherwise ceases to exist with no plausible successor, the contract may resolve to "No." For "leave," cessation of holding the role qualifies, including resignation, retirement, removal, expulsion, expiration of term without renewal, recall, or other means by which the individual no longer occupies the role—this includes both voluntary and involuntary early departure AND the natural expiration of a term.
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.
The latest available prices are Before Jan 1, 2028: 21.5¢ on Kalshi; Before Oct 1, 2027: 16.5¢ on Kalshi; Before Jul 1, 2027: 15.5¢ on Kalshi; Before Apr 1, 2027: 11.5¢ on Kalshi. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.
Venues have different traders, liquidity and fees, so their prices can differ. A cross-platform comparison needs available prices for the same outcome on at least two venues.
For example, Before Jan 1, 2028 at 21.5¢ implies about a 21.5% chance. For a standard $1 contract, a share pays $1 if its outcome settles as correct and $0 if it settles as incorrect. A winning share bought at 40¢ earns 60¢ before fees. Check each venue’s settlement rules, fees and eligibility before trading.
