Live prediction market odds for Will the ACA premium tax credits be extended?. Compare prices across Kalshi.
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Traders give Before 2027 about a 5.2% chance. Compare prices from Kalshi.
Traders give Before 2027 about a 5.2% chance. Compare prices from Kalshi.
Kalshi is tracking the potential extension of ACA premium tax credits. The outcome of this decision could significantly impact healthcare affordability for millions and influence the political landscape leading up to the next election cycle.
Before 2027
5.2% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf legislation extending or reinstating (if expired) enhanced ACA premium tax credits becomes law before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
The enhanced premium tax credits are set to expire December 31, 2025. Clarification (11/14/25): Any extension that continues the enhanced premium tax credits past this year qualifies for a Yes resolution, regardless of modifications to the extension's structure. This would include extensions that reduce the subsidy amounts or modify eligibility criteria. An extension of the credits for any length of time beyond the current expiration date is encompassed within the Payout Criterion.
ACA premium tax credits are subsidies designed to help lower-income individuals and families afford health insurance purchased through the Health Insurance Marketplace. They reduce the monthly premium costs based on income and household size.
Extending these tax credits is crucial for maintaining healthcare affordability for many Americans, especially as costs continue to rise. The decision could also influence voter sentiment and political strategies in upcoming elections.
Factors include legislative negotiations, public opinion on healthcare, and the overall political climate as the deadline approaches. Economic conditions and healthcare policy debates will also play a role in shaping the outcome.
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.
The latest available prices are Before 2027: 5.2¢ on Kalshi. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.
