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Traders give DOJ fines Nvidia over Groq deal in 2026? about a 9.0% chance. Compare prices from Kalshi and Polymarket.
Will the DOJ fine Nvidia over the Groq deal before 2027?
Will the DOJ fine Nvidia over the Groq deal before 2027?
Live prediction market odds for Will the DOJ fine Nvidia over the Groq deal before 2027?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Traders give DOJ fines Nvidia over Groq deal in 2026? about a 9.0% chance. Compare prices from Kalshi and Polymarket.
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf the U.S. Department of Justice announces a fine or civil/criminal monetary penalty imposed on Nvidia, or agreed to by Nvidia in a settlement, concerning the Groq licensing deal announced on December 24, 2025 before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. An agreed settlement can qualify before court approval. Investigations, information demands, subpoenas, civil investigative demands, requests for penalties, statements about possible future fines, nonmonetary relief, and unrelated fines do NOT count.
PolymarketThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) announces a fine or any other civil or criminal monetary penalty imposed on Nvidia Corporation (Nvidia), or agreed to by Nvidia in a settlement, consent decree, deferred prosecution agreement, non-prosecution agreement, or plea agreement, concerning Nvidia's licensing agreement with Groq, Inc. and the related hiring of Groq personnel announced on December 24, 2025, including any amendment, restructuring, or replacement of that arrangement (the Groq agreement), between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying penalty is a payment of any amount that Nvidia, or any parent, subsidiary, or successor of Nvidia, is ordered or agrees to pay to the United States government as a fine, civil penalty, criminal penalty, or disgorgement in connection with the Groq agreement, including any penalty for an alleged failure to file a premerger notification or observe a required waiting period for that agreement. The penalty must be announced by the DOJ, filed in court by the DOJ, or ordered by a court in a case brought by the DOJ; a penalty announced jointly by the DOJ and another federal agency qualifies. A penalty imposed or agreed to in a matter to which the DOJ is not a party will not qualify. A settlement, consent decree, deferred prosecution agreement, non-prosecution agreement, or plea agreement in which Nvidia agrees to pay a qualifying penalty counts as of the date the DOJ announces it or files it in court, regardless of whether a court has approved it by the resolution date. A penalty that resolves allegations concerning the Groq agreement together with allegations concerning other matters qualifies, whether or not any portion of the penalty is attributed to the Groq agreement. A qualifying penalty counts regardless of whether it is later reduced, vacated, or appealed. The following will not qualify on their own: the opening, continuation, or expansion of an investigation; subpoenas, civil investigative demands, requests for information, or second requests for information; the filing of a complaint or lawsuit that seeks a penalty that has not yet been imposed or agreed to; statements about a possible or future penalty; non-monetary relief such as an order to unwind or modify the Groq agreement, divestitures, conduct remedies, or compliance monitoring; penalties imposed only on individuals; penalties imposed only on Groq, Inc. at a time when Groq is not a subsidiary of Nvidia; and penalties that concern only matters other than the Groq agreement. If the DOJ publicly announces that it has closed its investigation into the Groq agreement without imposing or agreeing to a qualifying penalty and without filing a complaint or lawsuit against Nvidia concerning the Groq agreement, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Department of Justice, including press releases and court filings from its Antitrust Division (https://www.justice.gov/atr); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The Groq deal involves Nvidia's acquisition of Groq, a company specializing in AI hardware. This transaction has raised regulatory scrutiny, prompting potential legal actions.
Odds are influenced by news regarding regulatory actions, statements from the DOJ, and developments in the tech industry. Market participants analyze these factors to gauge the likelihood of a fine.
The DOJ assesses mergers and acquisitions for antitrust concerns, which can lead to fines if violations are found. Their decision can be based on market competition impacts and compliance with regulations.
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.
The latest available prices are DOJ fines Nvidia over Groq deal in 2026?: 9.0¢ on Kalshi, 9.0¢ on Polymarket. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.