Will the Federal Trade Commission announce opening an investigation into the acquisition, scanning and destruction of books by artificial intelligence companies for use in training AI models before Jan 1, 2027?
Live prediction market odds for Will the Federal Trade Commission announce opening an investigation into the acquisition, scanning and destruction of books by artificial intelligence companies for use in training AI models before Jan 1, 2027?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Traders give FTC opens investigation into AI book destruction in 2026? about a 6.2% chance. Compare prices from Kalshi and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 0.3 percentage points.
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf the Federal Trade Commission announces opening an investigation into the acquisition, scanning and destruction of books by artificial intelligence companies for use in training AI models before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Only a public act of the Federal Trade Commission counts: a press release, a docketed Section 6(b) study order, a filed administrative or federal complaint, or an on-the-record statement by the Chair or a Commissioner confirming an investigation. A statement by the Chair or a Commissioner in congressional testimony counts if it confirms an investigation into this practice A statement of general concern, a request for public comment, or an acknowledgement of receiving the letter without confirming an investigation does NOT count If the Commission opens an investigation but does not disclose it publicly before expiration, this market resolves NO The investigation must concern the acquisition, scanning or destruction of books for training AI models. An unrelated artificial intelligence inquiry does NOT count
PolymarketThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States Federal Trade Commission (FTC) publicly announces or confirms that it has opened an investigation, issued orders under Section 6(b) of the FTC Act, or filed an enforcement action concerning the acquisition, scanning, or destruction of print books by AI companies for use in training AI models (the "book destruction practice"), between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". On August 21, 2026, a coalition of 18 civil society groups, including Demand Progress Education Fund, the Consumer Federation of America, and the Institute for Local Self-Reliance, asked the FTC to investigate whether the bulk purchase, destructive scanning, and disposal of print books by AI companies (the practice described in the copyright litigation Bartz v. Anthropic) constitutes an unfair method of competition under Section 5 of the FTC Act, including through the FTC's Section 6(b) study authority. An AI company means any company that develops, trains, or operates AI models, and includes a contractor or vendor that acquires, scans, or disposes of print books on such a company's behalf. An investigation into any one of the steps of the book destruction practice (the bulk acquisition of print books, their destructive scanning, or the disposal of the books) qualifies, provided it concerns print books acquired or processed by AI companies for use in training AI models. A qualifying act is a public, on-the-record act of the FTC confirming an investigation into the book destruction practice, namely one of the following: an official FTC press release, or an official statement published by the FTC on ftc.gov or through the FTC's official accounts; an order issued under Section 6(b) of the FTC Act to one or more AI companies, publicly announced or published by the FTC, that concerns their acquisition, scanning, or destruction of print books; an administrative complaint or federal court complaint filed by the FTC concerning the book destruction practice; any other publicly available filing by the FTC in a federal court or in an FTC administrative proceeding that confirms such an investigation (for example, a petition to enforce a civil investigative demand); or an on-the-record statement by the FTC Chair or an FTC Commissioner, including in congressional testimony, confirming that the FTC has opened or is conducting such an investigation. The qualifying act need not name a specific company, need not use the word "investigation", and need not state that the books were or are to be used for AI training, provided it confirms that the FTC has opened or is conducting a formal investigation, study, or enforcement proceeding whose subject includes AI companies' acquisition, scanning, or destruction of print books. An investigation that also covers other conduct qualifies so long as the acquisition, scanning, or destruction of print books by AI companies is expressly identified in the FTC's public announcement, or in the published text of the order, complaint, or filing, as a matter under investigation. The following will not qualify: statements of general concern about the book destruction practice; a request for public comment, a workshop, or a report that does not confirm an investigation; an acknowledgement that the FTC has received or is reviewing the coalition's letter; an FTC investigation or Section 6(b) study of AI companies on other matters (for example AI partnerships, chatbots, or consumer protection) whose public announcement and published text do not expressly cover the acquisition, scanning, or destruction of print books; an investigation limited to the acquisition or use of digital copies of books (for example pirated or shadow-library files) that does not concern print books; investigations by other federal agencies, state attorneys general, or foreign regulators; and anonymous, unattributed, or leaked reports that the FTC has opened an investigation, unless publicly confirmed by the FTC by the deadline. Statements that the FTC is considering, reviewing, monitoring, or looking into the book destruction practice, or that it may investigate it, will not qualify unless they explicitly confirm that an investigation has been opened or is underway. If the FTC opens an investigation but does not publicly confirm it by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Once a qualifying act has occurred, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether the investigation is later closed, narrowed, or results in no enforcement action. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Trade Commission (https://www.ftc.gov/news-events/news/press-releases); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to confirm that a qualifying public act has occurred.
The FTC must announce the investigation before January 1, 2027, for the market to resolve positively.
The investigation focuses on the acquisition, scanning, and destruction of books by AI companies for training AI models.
The market resolves based on whether the FTC makes a formal announcement regarding the investigation into AI companies' practices.
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The latest available prices are FTC opens investigation into AI book destruction in 2026?: 6.0¢ on Kalshi, 6.3¢ on Polymarket. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.
