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What markets expect the next report to say about consumer prices.
Each rung is the chance that monthly CPI comes in above that level, so the odds fall as the threshold rises. Where the odds cross 50% is roughly the market's central expectation; how quickly they fall either side shows how sure traders are.
A monthly change of 0.2% compounds to about 2.4% a year and 0.3% to about 3.7%, which is a quick way to read a monthly ladder against an annual inflation target.
The November CPI report comes out Thursday, December 10, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET. The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes CPI about two weeks after the month it covers ends.
Each contract asks whether the seasonally adjusted month-over-month change in CPI, as first published by the BLS and rounded to one decimal, comes in above a level. Later revisions do not change the result. Each venue has its own rule for a release that is delayed or never published, so check them before trading around a shutdown.
Headline CPI covers everything consumers buy. Core CPI leaves out food and energy, the two most volatile parts, so it moves less from month to month and is the measure the Fed watches most closely for the underlying trend.
Gasoline prices feed straight into the headline number, so the weekly AAA average moves it. Shelter, used cars and airfares drive most surprises in core. Nowcasts such as the Cleveland Fed's, the PPI report and the import price index also shift the odds in the days before the print.
For information only. Not financial or investment advice. Prices come from the venues listed and can move quickly around a release; check each venue's resolution rules and availability in your state before trading.