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What markets expect the world's major central banks to do with interest rates at their next meetings.
Venues word outcomes differently, so equivalent contracts are shown on one row: a Kalshi "Hold" and a Polymarket "No change" are the same bet. The consensus probability uses the deeper books first, so a stale quote on a thin venue does not move it.
Kalshi and Polymarket list rate decisions for the Federal Reserve and for a growing set of other banks, including the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, the Bank of Canada, the Reserve Bank of Australia and Banxico. This page shows every upcoming meeting with a market we track; the Fed has its own tracker.
Each outcome, from a large cut through a hold to a large hike, is its own contract. It settles on the policy rate the bank announces at that meeting, measured against the rate before it, so only one outcome pays.
Rate moves abroad shift currencies, bond yields and the relative appeal of US assets. A surprise hike by the Bank of Japan, for example, can ripple through global markets within hours, and it changes the backdrop for the Fed's own decisions.
For information only. Not financial or investment advice. Prices come from the venues listed and can move quickly around a release; check each venue's resolution rules and availability in your state before trading.
Markets expect rates to stay put at 2 of the next 7 meetings and rise at the other 5.
From prediction markets, where people trade real money on each decision. Prices come from Kalshi and Polymarket, and some of these markets are thinly traded.
Each bank's next meeting, what's most likely, and how that view has changed over the past 30 days.
The price of the most likely outcome on each market. A contract pays $1 if it happens. Green marks the cheapest.
Show odds as
| Outcome | Consensus |  Kalshi |  Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hike 25 bp | 84% | 84% | 84% |
| Hold | 16% | 16% | 17% |
| Cut 25 bp | 2% | 2% | <1% |
| Hike 50+ bp | 1% | 2% | 1% |
| Cut 50+ bp | <1% | 1% | <1% |
KalshiPolymarketLower ratesNo changeRaise rates
| 53¢ |
| Switzerland, Dec 10 | No change | 84¢ | 82¢ |
|---|
| UK, Dec 17 | Raise a quarter point | 71¢ | 72¢ |
|---|
| Mexico, Dec 17 | No change | 93¢ | 93¢ |
|---|
| Euro area, Dec 17 | Raise a quarter point | 94¢ | 94¢ |
|---|
| Japan, Dec 18 | Raise a quarter point | 87¢ | 90¢ |
|---|
3:30 AM ET
Show odds as
| Outcome | Consensus | Kalshi | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold | 83% | 84% | 82% |
| Hike 25 bp5 pt gap | 15% | 13% | 18% |
| Cut 25 bp | 2% | 2% | <1% |
| Hike 50+ bp | 2% | 2% | <1% |
| Cut 50+ bp | <1% | 1% | <1% |
KalshiPolymarket