Loading economy forecasts…
Loading economy forecasts…
What markets expect the next report to say about how fast the US economy is growing.
Monthly data feeds the quarter as it arrives: retail sales and personal spending for consumption, factory orders and shipments for investment, and the trade and inventory reports, which can swing the headline by a point or more on their own.
Two quarters of negative growth is a common shorthand for a recession, and some recession markets settle on exactly that. The recession odds page shows how those markets read the same data.
The next release is the Q4 GDP advance estimate on Thursday, January 28, 2027 at 8:30 AM ET. The Bureau of Economic Analysis publishes the advance estimate about a month after each quarter ends, then revises it twice.
They settle on the advance estimate: the seasonally adjusted, annualized percent change in real GDP that the BEA publishes first. Later revisions do not change the result, so the markets are a bet on the first print, not on the final figure.
Each contract asks whether growth comes in above a level. Reading down the ladder gives the market's whole distribution: where the odds cross 50% is roughly the median expectation, and how fast they fall shows how uncertain traders are.
GDPNow is a model estimate that updates as monthly data arrives. Prediction markets price the same release with money behind every view, so they can also reflect information the model does not use. When the two diverge, the gap is worth watching into the release.
For information only. Not financial or investment advice. Prices come from the venues listed and can move quickly around a release; check each venue's resolution rules and availability in your state before trading.
Next report: Thursday Jan 28, 8:30 AM ET
3.4% in the latest report, annualized. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis. Faded bars are what markets project, with the likely range marked. Click one for a closer look.
Growth for the full year.
Markets expect growth of about 3.0% in the fourth quarter. Most likely between 2.1% and 3.9%.
Markets expect growth of about 2.2% in the first quarter of 2027. Most likely between 1.1% and 3.3%.
Markets expect growth of about 2.4% for all of 2026. Most likely between 2.1% and 2.6%.
Markets expect growth of about 2.6% for all of 2027. Most likely between 1.3% and 3.8%.
Above 3.0% on Kalshi at 53¢