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The chance of a US recession by the end of 2026, according to people betting real money on it.
A recession market is a single yes or no contract, so its price is the probability. Because the venues define a recession differently, compare each venue's price with its rule before reading the gap as an arbitrage: the two contracts can both be right.
The year-end regimes add context a single number cannot. A rising soft-landing share with steady recession odds reads very differently from a rising stagflation share, even if the headline barely moves.
The figure at the top of this page is the live consensus across the venues that list the market, with each venue's own price beside it. It updates as traders react to GDP, jobs and inflation data.
Their contracts pay on different events. Kalshi's market resolves Yes only on two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth reported by the BEA. Polymarket's also resolves Yes if the National Bureau of Economic Research declares a recession, so it covers more ways to say yes and can trade higher.
In the US the official call comes from the NBER's Business Cycle Dating Committee, which looks at employment, income, spending and production, and often announces months after a recession starts. Two straight quarters of falling real GDP is a popular shorthand, and some markets settle on it because it is published on a fixed schedule.
The GDP test is settled by the advance estimate for the fourth quarter, published in late January 2027. An NBER announcement can come at any time and often lags the data by many months.
For information only. Not financial or investment advice. Prices come from the venues listed and can move quickly around a release; check each venue's resolution rules and availability in your state before trading.
US recession in 2026?
chance
Down from a peak of 37% this spring. The most likely year-end state is overheating, at 69%.
From prediction markets, where people trade real money on the outcome.
Four regimes defined by the unemployment rate and inflation at year end. The split between them says more than a single recession probability.
A contract pays $1 if it happens. Each market has its own definition, so compare the rules as well as the price.
4.1% in October, down from 4.5% a year earlier. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
165,000 jobs added in October. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The chance of a recession before 2027 in other major economies.
Over the past month.
Kalshi
Polymarket