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What markets expect the Federal Reserve to do with interest rates at each upcoming meeting, and how that view has changed.
Kalshi lists one contract per outcome at each meeting, from a cut of more than 25 basis points through a hold to a hike of more than 25, and settles on the target range in the FOMC statement. It is regulated by the CFTC and open to US residents.
Polymarket lists the same meeting as a set of outcomes that also settle on the statement, with an unusual move such as 12.5 basis points rounded into a 25 basis point bucket. Its global exchange and Polymarket US are separate venues with separate prices, which is why both can appear in the table.
CME FedWatch is not a market you trade: it backs probabilities out of 30-day fed funds futures prices, which makes it a useful cross-check. The consensus on this page uses only the prediction markets, with stale quotes on thin venues left out.
Inflation and labor data move these markets most: CPI, PCE and the monthly jobs report each reprice the next meeting within minutes of release. Speeches by FOMC members, the minutes of the previous meeting and sharp moves in Treasury yields matter too.
Odds on later meetings move more slowly and react to the same data, because each decision depends on where the rate stands after the one before it. Watching how the whole path shifts after a release shows whether traders think the Fed changes course or just changes timing.
The next FOMC rate decision is Wednesday, December 9, 2026 at 2:00 PM ET. The meeting after that ends Wednesday, January 27, 2027. The Chair's press conference starts 30 minutes after the statement.
The ladder at the top of this page shows the live probability of every outcome at the next meeting, from a cut of 50 basis points or more through a hold to a hike of 50 or more, with each venue's own price beside the consensus.
Each possible decision is its own contract that pays $1 if it happens and nothing if it does not. The price is the market's probability: a hold contract at 84 cents means traders put the chance of no change at about 84%. The contracts settle on the target range announced in the FOMC statement.
FedWatch derives probabilities from the prices of 30-day fed funds futures. Prediction markets list each outcome as a separate contract, so the probability is read straight from its price. Both are market-implied, they usually agree, and when they diverge it is worth knowing which side is moving.
The FOMC holds eight scheduled meetings a year, each over two days. The rate decision is announced at 2:00 PM ET on the second day. Four of the meetings, in March, June, September and December, also publish the Summary of Economic Projections with the dot plot.
A basis point is one hundredth of a percentage point, so 25 basis points is a quarter point. A 25 basis point hike moves the federal funds target range up by 0.25, which feeds through to credit card rates, adjustable mortgages and Treasury yields.
For information only. Not financial or investment advice. Prices come from the venues listed and can move quickly around a release; check each venue's resolution rules and availability in your state before trading.
Next Fed decision: Wednesday Dec 9, 2:00 PM ET
What it means: a quarter-point hike would lift the top of the Fed's target range from 4.00% to 4.25%, its second hike this year.
Lower ratesNo changeRaise rates
After that, markets lean toward raise rates in January (60%). They see 2 hikes in all of 2026 as 89% likely, and about even odds that rates end 2027 at 4.75% or higher.
What's expected at each meeting, at a glance.
The same bet can cost a different amount on each market. A contract pays $1 if it happens. Green marks the cheapest.
Top of the Fed's target range since 2024, with what markets expect on Dec 9. Source: New York Fed.
2:00 PM ET
Show odds as
| Outcome | Consensus |  Kalshi |  Polymarket |  Polymarket US |  Predict.fun |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hike 25 bp | 89% | 89% | 89% | 87% | 88% |
| Hike 50+ bp | 11% | 11% | 9% | 12% | 9% |
| Hold | 3% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 2% |
| Cut 50+ bp | 1% | 1% | <1% | 1% | <1% |
| Cut 25 bp | 1% | 1% | <1% | 1% | <1% |
KalshiPolymarketPolymarket USPredict.funQuick pick
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and nothing if it does not. Venue fees are not included.
Trade Hike 25 bp on Polymarket USLower ratesNo changeRaise rates
The chance the Fed's rate ends 2027 at or above each level. It's about even at 4.75%.
| 87¢ |
| 88¢ |
| Raise by a half point or more | 11¢ | 9¢ | 12¢ | 9¢ |
|---|
2:00 PM ET
Show odds as
| Outcome | Consensus | Kalshi | Polymarket | Predict.fun |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hike 25 bp | 59% | 59% | 60% | 59% |
| Hold | 38% | 37% | 39% | 38% |
| Hike 50+ bp7 pt gap | 2% | 3% | 1% | 8% |
| Cut 25 bp8 pt gap | 2% | 2% | <1% | 8% |
| Cut 50+ bp8 pt gap | <1% | 1% | <1% | 8% |
KalshiPolymarketPredict.funShow odds as
| Outcome | Consensus | Kalshi | Polymarket | Predict.fun |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 (50 Bps) | 89% | 89% | 89% | 90% |
| 3 (75 Bps) | 8% | 8% | 8% | 8% |
| 1 (25 Bps) | 3% | 4% | 2% | 3% |
| 5+ (125+ Bps) | <1% | Not listed | <1% | 2% |
| 4 (100 Bps) | <1% | Not listed | <1% | 2% |
KalshiPolymarketPredict.funShow odds as
| Upper bound | Consensus | Kalshi | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 1.00% | 97% | 97% | Not listed |
| Above 1.25% | 96% | 96% | Not listed |
| Above 1.50% | 96% | 96% | Not listed |
| Above 1.75% | 96% | 96% | Not listed |
| Above 2.00% | 94% | 94% | Not listed |
| Above 2.25% | 94% | 94% | Not listed |
| Above 2.50% | 95% | 95% | Not listed |
| Above 2.75% | 92% | 92% | Not listed |
| 3.25% Or Above | 92% | 92% | 95%, check: left out of the consensus |
| 3.50% Or Above | 90% | 90% | Not listed |
| 3.75% Or Above | 88% | 88% | Not listed |
| 4.00% Or Above | 80% | 80% | Not listed |
| 4.25% Or Above20 pt gap | 78% | 78% | 97%, check: left out of the consensus |
| 4.50% Or Above26 pt gap | 60% | 48% | 73% |
| 4.75% Or Above26 pt gap | 52% | 40% | 65% |
| 5.00% Or Above25 pt gap | 41% | 29% | 53% |
| 5.25% Or Above28 pt gap | 30% | 16% | 44% |
| Above 5.25% | 10% | 10% | Not listed |
| Above 5.50% | 10% | 10% | Not listed |
| Above 5.75% | 5% | 5% | Not listed |
| Above 6.00% | 5% | 5% | Not listed |
92%95%, check: left out of the consensus78%97%, check: left out of the consensusKalshiPolymarket USThe odds for the Dec 9 decision over the past month.