Alaska Senate Polls vs. Markets: Volume Hits 6.84x as DOJ Suit Is Tossed

Polls show Alaska's Senate race between Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan and Democrat Mary Peltola within a few points, while the Alaska Senate party winner odds page for "Which party will win the 2026 US Senate election in Alaska?" shows Republicans at 28% on Kalshi as of Nov. 1. The market traded $500,520 across 1,218 trades on Oct. 31, 2026, against a prior seven-day average of $73,164 a day: 6.84 times the baseline, a lift of $427,356.

The next day, a federal judge dismissed the Justice Department's lawsuit seeking to block certification if Sullivan lost, and DOJ says it will appeal. Over the following 24 hours, the Republican party contract fell from about 46% to 28% as of Nov. 1, a drop of 18 percentage points. The sources do not establish that the ruling caused either the volume or the price move, and the volume spike came the day before the ruling was released.

---

Reading the Daily Volume History for the Alaska Senate Market

The calculation is simple to reproduce. Add the dollar volume for the seven completed days starting Oct. 24 ($512,150), divide by seven to get $73,164, then divide Oct. 31's $500,520 by that figure: 6.84x.

The earlier high in the window was Oct. 28, at about $212,956, roughly 2.9 times the baseline average. Oct. 31 more than doubled that day, making it the largest completed day in the 29 days of history supplied here. That span is not the market's full life, so Oct. 31 is a window high, not a confirmed all-time record.

Two limits apply. The baseline includes the Oct. 28 spike, which raises the average and slightly understates the multiplier. And the baseline is small: on supplied rankings, this market sits last of five comparable markets on baseline volume, so modest dollar inflows produce large multipliers.

---

Why Did Trading Volume Increase in the Alaska Senate Market?

The Oct. 31 surge fell inside a dense legal news cycle around Alaska's ballot. DOJ sued Alaska on Oct. 22 to block certification if Sullivan lost by fewer votes than those cast for Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., a retired Petersburg schoolteacher with no party affiliation whose name appears on the ranked-choice ballot after the Alaska Supreme Court upheld his place. The suit argued voters may have been confused by two similarly named Senate candidates.

The state pushed back in court. The Washington Post reported that Alaska asked the judge to deny the administration's demand to set aside Senate ballots. Sullivan, meanwhile, accused Peltola of "lying" about having no ties to the ballot controversy, according to the Associated Press.

On Sunday, Nov. 1, U.S. District Judge Sharon Gleason dismissed the case. She found the federal government lacked the ability to bring it under the National Voter Registration Act's preamble, and that the requested order would likely violate Alaskans' right to a secret ballot, NPR reported. "The absence of any explanation from the United States as to how its requested relief could redress its alleged injury while simultaneously maintaining the secrecy of the ballot is telling," Gleason wrote. The ruling closed, for now, a legal path that could have delayed certification of a Peltola win.

The question stays open. A DOJ spokesperson said the department plans to appeal. Sullivan said he will accept the election results, CNBC reported. Election Day, Nov. 3, also sat three days out when volume peaked. Timing supports an attention explanation, but volume data cannot show why traders participated or whether they bought or sold the Republican contract.

---

Market landscape: outcomes and contracts

Public polling shows a close race. Data for Progress (Oct. 16) found Peltola up 51-49, and PPP (Oct. 14-15) had Peltola ahead 48-47. NYT/Siena's Oct. 1 poll showed the widest gap, Peltola 50-43. Rasmussen's first-choice result had Peltola at 44% and Sullivan at 42%, according to Rasmussen Reports. Alaska Survey Research's Oct. 29 release also gave Peltola a narrow edge. The current RealClearPolling average (Oct. 8-29) is Peltola 49.4%, Sullivan 48.2%. Cook Political Report rates the race a toss-up.

The market is less balanced than the polls. On Nov. 1 the Republican party contract priced at 28% on Kalshi, 25% on Polymarket and 33% on PredictIt, an eight-point spread across venues. All three make Peltola's party the favorite despite narrow polling margins.

Live market odds

2 venues

Which party will win the 2026 US Senate election in Alaska?

Each outcome's chance, from what traders are paying right now on Kalshi and PredictIt.

Republican partyIn this story

<1%

KalshiBest price200.00x0.5¢PredictIt50.00x2¢

Democratic party

99%

PredictItBest price1.01x99¢Kalshi1.00x99.6¢

New to Kalshi? Get a $55 trading bonus

Code PRED55. New users only. Eligibility restrictions and terms apply.

Claim offer

Compare every venueCents per $1 payout, before fees

This is a party-level contract: traders buy or sell whether Republicans or Democrats win Alaska's seat, not Sullivan or Peltola by name. Oct. 31 activity was almost entirely on Kalshi, which handled $500,520 across 1,216 trades. Polymarket recorded two trades and effectively zero dollar volume. PredictIt lists a price, but no volume figure was supplied for it.

---

What Could Keep Alaska Senate Trading Elevated or Let It Fade

DOJ's appeal is the nearest legal catalyst: a filing, an expedited schedule or a higher-court response would reopen the certification question. Election Day on Nov. 3 is the larger one, and results may not be clear until the morning after because Alaska counts by ranked choice. Without fresh news, a market this thin on baseline volume can drop back toward its roughly $73,000 daily norm quickly. The volume and price figures here are measured; the motive behind them is not.