Did Amy Madigan Win the Oscar? Yes, but Her Market Shows 20%

---

Amy Madigan Won the 2026 Best Supporting Actress Oscar for 'Weapons'

Yes. Amy Madigan won Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards on March 15, 2026, for playing Gladys in Zach Cregger's 'Weapons', beating Elle Fanning and Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas (both 'Sentimental Value'), Wunmi Mosaku ('Sinners') and Teyana Taylor ('One Battle After Another'), according to the BBC, Reuters and The Guardian.

The win came 40 years after her only prior nomination, for 1986's 'Twice in a Lifetime', the longest gap between nominations before a win, AP reported. She entered the ceremony holding the Critics' Choice and Actor Awards. The rest of the precursors were split: Taylor took the Golden Globe and Mosaku the BAFTA.

---

Why Madigan's Market Price Slid From 27% to 20% Despite the Win

On Polymarket, the Oscar Winner: Best Supporting Actress contract for "Actress A" (Madigan) fell from 27% to 20% over three days, a drop of about 7 percentage points. As of Nov. 2, 2026, the 20% price was also the period low.

1D7D30D

The contract's terms explain the gap better than the price does. The market lists a resolution date of March 14, 2027, nearly a year after Madigan's certified win. A contract that settles in 2027 at a 20% implied probability does not match a result decided on March 15, 2026. The sources do not say whether the market tracks a later ceremony or carries a date error.

The next milestone is the operator's resolution language. Readers can check status and settlement terms on the Best Supporting Actress Oscar winner market page. If the contract stays open at 20% with the 2026 result already certified, that is a question about contract structure, not a trading signal. The open question is whether this market resolves to the March 15 outcome or to a ceremony that has not yet been held.

Live market odds

2 venues

Oscar Winner: Best Supporting Actress

Each outcome's chance, from what traders are paying right now on Kalshi and Polymarket.

Amanda SeyfriedIn this story

24%

PolymarketBest price4.57x21.9¢Kalshi3.57x28¢

Anne Hathaway

58%

KalshiBest price1.72x58¢Polymarket1.64x61¢

Penélope Cruz

9%

PolymarketBest price11.11x9¢Kalshi10.00x10¢

Kate O'Flynn

5%

KalshiBest price16.67x6¢Polymarket13.70x7.3¢

New to Kalshi? Get a $55 trading bonus

Code PRED55. New users only. Eligibility restrictions and terms apply.

Claim offer

Compare every venueCents per $1 payout, before fees