FL-13 House winner? Latest News

Resolved Nov 6, 2026

FL-13 House winner?

This market settled on November 6, 2026, so nothing below is tradeable. These are the last prices each venue published before settlement, not live quotes.

Compare every venueClosing prices, not an entry point

Consensus prediction market price

Since the first article's chart, September 1 to November 6

Hover the chart for prices over time. Each dot under it is a story update; hover to preview it, click to jump to it.

Background

Florida's 13th Congressional District, in the Tampa Bay area including part of Pinellas County, is being decided in the November 2026 general election, with the market resolving on Nov. 4 after the votes are counted. Republican incumbent Anna Paulina Luna, seeking a third term, faces Democrat Leela Gray, a retired Army brigadier general who won the August 18 primary. The DCCC added Gray to its Red to Blue program.

The key point for reading the odds is that this is a single winner-take-all House race, so the market price is the chance that one candidate finishes first. Polls estimate vote share, while markets and models estimate the chance of winning. Many public polls are sponsored by party-aligned groups, which affects how much weight each one deserves.

Public polls, newest first. Bases differ, so compare like with like.
Poll	Fieldwork	Base	Anna Paulina Luna	Leela Gray
RedBox Research / A Fight Worth Having	Oct. 20-23	Likely voters	48%	45%
Public Policy Polling / House Majority PAC	Oct. 14-15	Likely voters	46%	47%
Hart Research Associates / House Majority PAC	Aug. 25-27	Likely voters	46%	51%

Nov. 1, 2026: Luna's FL-13 Odds Fall to 64% After $750K PAC Ad Shift

Anna Paulina Luna's Chances of Winning FL-13 Fell to 64% After a PAC Ad Shift

Anna Paulina Luna's chance of winning Florida's 13th District fell from 72% to the mid-60s in three days in the FL-13 House winner market, as of Nov. 1. On Oct. 30, Florida Politics reported that No Going Back PAC, a Trump-aligned super PAC, shifted at least $750,000 in ads from Kathy Castor's FL-14 race into FL-13. House Majority PAC, the Democratic committee, read the move as a sign that Luna's internal polls show a close race. That reading is the committee's interpretation, not a reported fact.

The market fell about 8 percentage points. Kalshi prices her at 64% and Polymarket at 65%. Call the Map gives her 77% and predicts R+3.9. Decision Desk HQ moved FL-13 from Likely R to Lean R on Oct. 22, which is consistent with a lower probability, but its exact current figures could not be verified and are not cited here.

Are There Polls for Anna Paulina Luna (R) and Leela Gray in FL-13?

Yes. Several public polls exist, and they disagree. The two most recent ones, as listed by DDHQ, point in opposite directions:

RedBox Research / A Fight Worth Having, Oct. 20-23 (875 likely voters): Luna 48%, Gray 45%, a Luna lead of 3 points.
Public Policy Polling / House Majority PAC, Oct. 14-15 (603 likely voters): Gray 47%, Luna 46%. This poll was sponsored by a Democratic committee.
Hart Research / House Majority PAC, Aug. 25-27 (500 likely voters): Gray 51%, Luna 46%.

Other public polls also exist, including Fabrizio Lee (R, August, Luna +8) and GQR (D, August, Luna +3), per Call the Map and PollingSource.

Both October margins fall within the error ranges typical for district polls of this size. The PPP survey was taken about a week before RedBox and before the latest round of ad spending.

Polls and markets measure different things. A poll estimates vote share. The market and the models estimate the chance of winning. A 64% win probability means a modest Luna edge, which fits a race where one poll has her narrowly ahead and another has her narrowly behind.

Call the Map's forecast held flat at R+3.9 from Oct. 30 to Nov. 1, so it did not react to the ad news. Luna also had a fundraising edge: about $4.35 million raised to Gray's $2.92 million through Oct. 14.

What We Can and Can't Say About Why Luna's Odds Dropped

The PAC's ad shift came at the same time as the drop, but no source shows traders acting on it. The reading that Luna's internal polls show a tight race comes from House Majority PAC, which has an interest in that framing. Moving $750,000 could also reflect the PAC's own priorities.

The insider-trading allegations Gray has raised in ads remain a campaign issue. Luna denies them and has sent a cease-and-desist letter, and no new development surfaced in the reporting reviewed here.

As of Nov. 1, the market prices Luna below Call the Map's forecast. The gap means one of two things: traders are pricing in late information the model does not capture, or the market is having a short-term swing that will fade by Election Day. The market resolves on Nov. 4, after the votes are counted.

Earlier Updates

Sept. 4, 2026: Leela Gray Leads Luna 51-46 in First FL-13 Poll of 2026

Republican Party54% → 72%▲18

On September 4, 2026, House Majority PAC released a poll conducted August 25 through 27 by Hart Research Associates showing Democrat Leela Gray leading Republican incumbent Anna Paulina Luna 51% to 46% in FL-13. The Democratic-aligned super PAC's survey was the first public poll of the general election, and the DCCC had just added Gray to its Red to Blue program.

FL-13 House winner? Latest News