Alcaraz US Open Odds Jump 7 Points to 33% After Sinner Exit

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Carlos Alcaraz US Open Odds Jump to 33%

Carlos Alcaraz is now the prediction-market favorite to win the 2026 US Open after Jannik Sinner officially withdrew with a right knee injury. The live three-venue midpoint gives Alcaraz a 33.15% chance of winning the men's singles title, up from roughly 26.4% one day earlier. Alexander Zverev is the closest challenger in the current comparison at 20.75%.

Those prices reflect traders' estimates, not official tournament odds or a guarantee of either player's result. The move is still significant: removing the previous favorite forced the market to redistribute a large share of the field's win probability.

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Live Alcaraz US Open Odds

Prediction-market view

Resolved Sep 13, 2026

Final prices, venue by venue

This market settled on September 13, 2026, so nothing below is tradeable. These are the last prices each venue published before settlement, not live quotes.

Alcaraz's current 33.15% midpoint comes from live bid-ask prices across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Predict.fun. The three venue midpoints are tightly grouped near 32% to 35%, which makes the cross-venue average more useful than one isolated last trade.

The widget follows Alcaraz's market probability as prices update. Individual venue quotes can differ because each venue has separate traders, liquidity, fees, and spreads.

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Why Jannik Sinner Withdrew From the US Open

The US Open announced on Aug. 21 that Sinner had withdrawn because of a right knee injury. The official tournament report says the injury had already kept him out of Montreal and Cincinnati. Sinner said he needed more time after returning to court with his team.

His absence materially changes the men's title race. The official report says Sinner entered the summer as the world No. 1 and had reached the previous two US Open finals, winning in 2024 before losing to Alcaraz in 2025.

A withdrawn player can no longer win the tournament, so Sinner's old price is not the useful number for evaluating the new field. The better signals are the repriced probabilities for Alcaraz, Zverev, Novak Djokovic, and the remaining contenders.

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Alcaraz Returns From a Right Wrist Injury

Alcaraz's new position comes with an important qualification: he is returning from an injury of his own. In its official Aug. 20 announcement, the US Open said Alcaraz confirmed his participation after a right wrist injury kept him out of competition from April onward.

The announcement says Alcaraz will defend the title he won in 2025, when he defeated Sinner in the men's singles final. That creates a distinctive market setup. Alcaraz has lost his biggest pre-tournament rival, but traders must still price the uncertainty attached to his first tournament in several months.

His 33.15% probability is substantial without making him an overwhelming favorite. The market still assigns roughly two-thirds of the title probability to the rest of the field combined, before accounting for small differences in venue construction.

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Alexander Zverev Is the Closest Challenger

Zverev's three-venue midpoint stands at 20.75%, placing him roughly 12.4 percentage points behind Alcaraz. His average available price was near 12% one day earlier, so the immediate repricing has been even larger in percentage-point terms than Alcaraz's move.

The official Sinner withdrawal report identifies Alcaraz and Zverev among the players who benefit from his exit. The comparison gives a clearer view of the new top of the market:

• Carlos Alcaraz: 33.15%
• Alexander Zverev: 20.75%
• Difference: 12.40 percentage points

These figures can move quickly as traders assess Alcaraz's fitness and the tournament draw.

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What to Watch Before the 2026 US Open

The official US Open schedule runs through the men's singles final on Sept. 13. The official men's singles draw page will establish each contender's path through the tournament.

Draw placement, practice reports, and any new fitness information are the clearest near-term signals. A favorable path could reinforce Alcaraz's position, while doubts about his wrist or a difficult section of the draw could pull the 33% estimate lower.

For every player's live price, see the 2026 US Open men's singles odds hub.

The current answer is simple: Alcaraz leads the reset US Open market near 33% after Sinner's withdrawal, with Zverev second near 21%. The prices are live forecasts, and the tournament still has to be played.