Bitcoin Nears $80,000 in October: $80,850 Low Cuts Odds to 58%

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Will Bitcoin Hit $80,000 in October? Traders Cut the ↓ 80,000 Odds to 58% After a $80,850 Bounce

Bitcoin has not hit $80,000 in October yet, but it came within about 1%. On October 13 it touched roughly $80,850 to $81,000 and then recovered toward $83,500 to $84,000, according to Portal Cripto and BeInCrypto. The September CPI report on October 14 is the next test.

Traders priced the rebound quickly. On Polymarket, the ↓ 80,000 contract in "What price will Bitcoin hit in October?" fell from 64% to 58% over the three days to October 13, a drop of about 6 percentage points. The contract resolves on November 1.

Live market odds

3 venues

What price will Bitcoin hit in October?

Each outcome's chance, from what traders are paying right now on Polymarket, Opinion and Predict.fun.

↓ 75,000

14%

PolymarketBest price7.14x14¢Opinion6.25x16¢Predict.fun5.26x19¢

↓ 70,000

4%

PolymarketBest price26.32x3.8¢Opinion17.24x5.8¢Predict.fun16.67x6¢

↓ 62,500 and ↓ 60,000: under 1% eachShow all

Compare every venueCents per $1 payout, before fees

↓ 80,000 implied probability, October 10 to October 13, 2026: 64% to 58%.

Traders still price a sub-$80,000 print as slightly more likely than not, but they paid less for that outcome after Bitcoin failed to break through.

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Why Bitcoin Fell Toward $80,000: Liquidations, ETF Outflows and Rising Yields

The sell-off that put $80,000 within reach came from forced selling. Total crypto liquidations reached $771 million in the 24 hours to 1:20 a.m. UTC on October 13. Long positions accounted for $685.6 million of that total, according to CoinGlass data cited by CoinMarketCap. Bitcoin fell 2.8% to $81,382 during that window, down from about $84,200 earlier in the day. CoinGlass notes that public liquidation data may understate the true total.

Institutional demand weakened at the same time. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $681.1 million in net outflows for the week ending October 9, their worst week since late June, according to SoSoValue data reported by CoinMarketCap. The largest single-day outflow was about $485 million on October 7.

Macro pressure added to the selling. Dominick John, an analyst at Zeus Research, pointed to elevated Treasury yields, a stronger dollar and risk-off positioning ahead of US inflation data. The 10-year yield traded near 5.19% in the week ending October 9. Asian equities also slid, a rout that BeInCrypto tied to the broader tech sell-off. The sources describe these as concurrent factors and do not establish which one mattered most.

The long-heavy liquidations flushed leverage on the way down, and the bounce followed the touch of $80,850. We could not establish a specific trigger for the rebound.

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What to Watch Next: $80K-$82K Support and the September CPI Report on October 14

Analysts cite support at $80,000 to $82,000, with $82,000 widely called the key level, and resistance at $84,000 to $87,000, according to the Bitcoin Foundation and BeInCrypto. With Bitcoin near $83,500 to $84,000 on October 13, the price sits just above that zone. Another prediction market, Myriad, put the chance of a fall to $80,000 at 56%, Digital Today reported.

The September CPI release lands October 14 at 8:30 a.m. ET, with expectations for annual inflation to rise to 3.7% from 3.4%. A hotter print would add to the yield pressure already cited in the sell-off. The Fed meets October 27 to 28.

Two conditions frame the Bitcoin October price market. A break below $80,000 to $82,000 would put the ↓ 80,000 contract back under upward pressure. A hold above that zone after CPI would be consistent with the lower odds.

Bitcoin's October 13 low of about $80,850 is the level to beat, and the October 14 CPI report is the first scheduled test.