Byron Donalds vs. David Jolly Polls: Final Survey Shows 2-Point Race

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Byron Donalds vs. David Jolly Polls: Final St. Pete Survey Shows a 2-Point Race

Byron Donalds leads David Jolly in every poll cited here, but the margin depends on the pollster and the date. The final St. Pete Polls survey, conducted Oct. 25-27, had the Republican ahead just 48%-46%, according to Florida Politics. Earlier Mason-Dixon and Stetson surveys had him up 7 and 11 points, but a later Stetson survey (Oct. 26-30) showed him up 6, according to Stetson. Other late-October polls also showed single-digit Donalds leads, per PollCheck.

On Oct. 31, prediction markets gave Donalds a 68% implied probability of winning the Nov. 3 election, down about 8 percentage points from 75% three days earlier. The two measures answer different questions. A poll estimates vote share among surveyed voters. A market price estimates the chance of winning. Neither one is a forecast model.

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Are There Polls for Byron Donalds (R) in the Florida Governor Race?

Yes. Several surveys show Donalds ahead, and they disagree on scale:

Poll	Donalds margin over Jolly
St. Pete Polls (final, Oct. 25-27)	+2 (48%-46%)
Stetson (final, Oct. 26-30)	+6 (51%-45%)
Mason-Dixon (earlier survey)	+7
Stetson (earlier survey)	+11

The St. Pete Polls release carried a condition in its own headline: Donalds leads "as long as Republicans show up," per Florida Politics. The survey also showed Donalds at about 18% among Black voters. A 2-point lead sits inside the range where turnout alone can change the result.

A 68% price does not mean Donalds wins 68% of the vote. It means traders price roughly two-in-three odds that he wins at all. That figure fits a tight race better than an 11-point blowout.

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Why Byron Donalds' Florida Governor Odds Fell From 75% to 68%

The decline coincided with the release of the narrow St. Pete Polls result. The platforms do not agree on the level. Kalshi and Polymarket both price Donalds at 64%, while PredictIt holds him at 74%, a 10-point spread between venues.

The case against reading the drop as a collapse is strong. Donalds leads in all the polls cited here. His campaign and PAC have raised roughly $146-148 million against about $21-22 million for Jolly, an edge of about 7 to 1. That figure measures money, not votes. He won the Aug. 18 primary with 48%, and he holds President Trump's endorsement, with a Daytona stop alongside Trump planned for the final days.

His closing message centers on costs. At a Stuart rally, Donalds said his campaign had knocked on more than 2 million doors. He promised to cut homeowners insurance premiums and property taxes, and he called Jolly a "fraud" for switching parties, WPBF reported. Asked by CBS12 whether national headwinds such as the Iran war and Trump's approval ratings threaten Florida Republicans, Donalds said, "The Florida governor has no control over international policy."

The late stretch has also brought scrutiny. CBS Miami covered questions about Erika Donalds' companies managing state-funded charter schools. The campaign said its brick-and-mortar management contracts had ended, while its virtual instruction contracts continue.

Traders still price Donalds as the favorite. Live prices are tracked on the Florida governor winner market page.

Resolved Nov 4, 2026

Florida Governor winner?

This market settled on November 4, 2026, so nothing below is tradeable. These are the last prices each venue published before settlement, not live quotes.

Compare every venueClosing prices, not an entry point