Netanyahu out by...? Latest News

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Netanyahu out by...?

Each outcome's chance, from what traders are paying right now on Polymarket and Predict.fun.

December 31In this story

50%

PolymarketBest price2.04x49¢Predict.fun1.93x51.9¢

June 30, 2027

68%

Polymarket1.45x69¢

March 31, 2027

63%

Polymarket1.56x64¢

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Hover the chart for prices over time. Each dot under it is a story update; hover to preview it, click to jump to it.

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Background

The market asks whether Benjamin Netanyahu announces his resignation or is removed as Israel's prime minister by December 31. After the October 27 election, President Isaac Herzog gave Gadi Eisenkot the first mandate to form a government. Eisenkot's bloc drew 67 recommendations to Netanyahu's 46 after United Torah Judaism declined to back the incumbent, but Netanyahu stays caretaker prime minister until a new government forms or elections are called.

The rule that matters most is that a mandate is only a right to try. Eisenkot has 28 days to build a coalition of 61 seats, with a possible 14-day extension, so a late deal could miss the year-end deadline. Endorsements came from parties that have not agreed to govern together, and Eisenkot and Avigdor Liberman oppose relying on Arab-led parties. That leaves the haredi parties, and the draft question, as the swing factor.

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Nov. 10, 2026: Netanyahu out by Dec. 31? Odds hit 50% as Eisenkot gets mandate

Polymarket's "Netanyahu out by December 31?" contract traded at 50% on Nov. 10, after President Isaac Herzog gave Gadi Eisenkot the first mandate to form a government, according to the Washington Post and NPR. Benjamin Netanyahu remains caretaker prime minister until a new government is formed or elections are called. Sixty-seven lawmakers recommended Eisenkot and 46 recommended Netanyahu, after United Torah Judaism declined to back the incumbent.

The contract was at 38% three days earlier, a gain of 12 percentage points. The recommendation count does not settle the seat math. The October 27 election gave Netanyahu's bloc 53 seats and Eisenkot's Yashar-led bloc 48, with Arab-led parties holding 19. A majority takes 61 seats.

What Eisenkot must do before year-end to push Netanyahu out

The mandate gives Eisenkot the right to try. It does not give him a government. He has 28 days to assemble a coalition, and Herzog can extend that by 14 days, for a maximum of 42. The contract pays on Netanyahu leaving office, so traders should read the market's resolution rules rather than treat the mandate itself as an exit.

The arithmetic is tight because Eisenkot has ruled out relying on Arab-led parties, and Avigdor Liberman opposes Arab-party support. That leaves the haredi parties as the swing votes. MK Meir Porush said United Torah Judaism will not join a government without a solution for yeshiva students, according to The Jerusalem Post. The same outlet reported that Likud officials privately concede that if UTJ gets an acceptable draft arrangement, "all that remains is to put our trust in God." Netanyahu has called for a unity government and appealed to Zionist opposition parties for support.

The first test came on Nov. 10, when the 26th Knesset was sworn in. Control of the speaker's chair, held by Netanyahu ally Amir Ohana, could decide how quickly a challenger moves, The Guardian reported. Eisenkot sought haredi backing to remove Ohana and may take the role himself. France 24 described the new parliament as a tool that can make Netanyahu's position harder.

The December 31 contract climbed from 38% to 50% between Nov. 7 and Nov. 10, after Herzog's mandate to Eisenkot.

Next milestones that could confirm or reverse the market

Confirmation: Eisenkot presents a government to the Knesset and wins its confidence vote before December 31. A speaker vote that goes against Ohana, or a UTJ deal on the draft question, would be the earliest signals that a coalition is coming together.

Reversal: Eisenkot fails to form a coalition in the base window, which ends in early December, or in the extended window, which runs deep into December. If the mandate then passes to someone else or elections are called, Netanyahu stays in office as caretaker. With a 42-day ceiling, a government formed late in the extension could miss the year-end deadline by days.

Holding the mandate does not guarantee a Yes resolution. For live pricing across every deadline, see the Netanyahu out by...? odds market.

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Earlier Updates

Nov. 7, 2026: Netanyahu out by Dec. 31? Odds hit 46% as Eisenkot leads endorsements

December 3121% → 46%▲25

On November 7, Gadi Eisenkot's bloc collected 67 Knesset endorsements against 46 for Netanyahu after United Torah Judaism declined to back the prime minister, and President Isaac Herzog said he would task a candidate with forming a government on Sunday, November 8. Opposition momentum had built on November 6, when Avigdor Liberman lifted his veto on deals with ultra-Orthodox parties over conscription, according to Al-Monitor.